Dallas Mavericks at New Orleans Pelicans Jan 29: Breakdown, Prediction, and Prop Bets

Dallas Mavericks vs. New Orleans Pelicans: Game Analysis and Betting Tips
PJ Washington
PJ Washington and Daniel Gafford Will have massive roles on the road against the Pelicans tonight!
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Even though the records might not reflect it, these teams are closer than you’d expect. The return of Zion Williamson has turned the Pelicans into a legitimate threat at home. At the same time, the Mavericks struggle to maintain through injuries in one of the most evenly matched contests of the night. Tune in at 5:00 PM PT to catch all the action. 

Mavericks Injuries:

  • Naji Marshall Questionable 

  • Dwight Powell Out 

  • Dante Exum Out 

  • Maxi Kleber Out 

  • Dereck Lively II Out 

  • Luka Doncic Out 

Pelicans Injuries:

  • Jordan Hawkins Out 

  • Brandon Ingram Out 

  • Herb Jones Out 

Matchup Breakdown 

This might not be the first game you put on tonight, but it could be one of the closest. With the Pelicans rebounding from injuries and the Mavs falling deeper into them, the skill level of these teams matches up. 

Zion Williamson's return has been the team's most significant revival. His scoring ability and rebound have made a world of difference for this group. They are still extremely thin down low, as it’s just Missi, the rookie out of Baylor, holding down the fort in the post. Luckily for the Pelicans, the Mavericks are down on bigs, too, so one of their largest vulnerabilities probably won’t be exploited tonight. 

The Mavericks might be the worse team on paper tonight, but with Kyrie Irving playing, big things can still happen. The largest deciding factor for this game will be Kyrie’s health. Suffering from a bulging disk in his back, his scoring numbers have dropped slightly this month. With Dejounte Murray likely guarding him tonight, it could be a challenging night for Kyrie. 

The Pelicans feel like they have the advantage coming into tonight's game. Especially if Marshall is sidelined with an illness, they’ll advantages up and down the roster. Trey Murphy III and Zion will be the two to watch. They should be able to tear through this Dallas defense all night. With CJ McCollum threatening from the perimeter, the Pelicans have a great core for this matchup. 

Expect the Pelicans to win this handily. Even though they are the underdogs tonight, on a three-game losing streak, this team is still capable. 

Betting Lines (DraftKings)

  • Money line: NOP (-105) / DAL (-115) 

  • Total Points: 232

  • Spread: +1 NOP (-115) / -1DAL (-110)

Money line Prediction: New Orleans Pelicans Win

The Pelicans might be the most deceiving teams in the league. Their terrible record masks some great talent on the roster. Despite some ongoing issues, they have the athletes to beat Dallas. Without Lively, Zion can attack the rim all night, which could hamper the Mavs. 

Total Points Prediction: Over 233.5

Neither team has a strong defense right now, so expect plenty of scoring. Against strong scores like Irving and Thompson, the Pelicans will likely give up a ton of points. This one will be close, but the over has a slight edge.

Spread Prediction: +1 Pelicans

The money line is probably the better bet with such a tight line. The Pelicans have a solid chance to steal this game, so don’t be surprised if it's close.

Top Prop Bets 

PJ Washington Over 15.5 Points (-115)

This just feels like a PJ game. The Pelicans have been better lately, but Washington will likely get a ton of runs. He hasn’t scored below 16 points in the last six games. With Zion and Missi as the two guarding the paint, he’ll have loads of opportunities to cash in. 

Klay Thompson Over 2.5 Threes Made (-130)

With Irving back tonight, Klay will likely get the weaker of the two defensive assignments from New Orleans. CJ McCollum hasn’t done an excellent job staying on Klay in the past, which will give him plenty of open shots. This is a solid line With Klay averaging three-pointers made a game. 

Zion Williamson Over 6.5 Rebounds (-135)

TAKE THIS LINE! Zion has had 7 rebounds a game in all but two games he’s played in. With the Mavericks down on centers, he’ll easily hit this total tonight! 

Daniel Gafford Over 1.5 Assits (-180)

This line feels like a bit of a gimme. This is it if you’re looking for a line to toss into a parlay. Gafford has consistently gotten at least two assists a game, even before Lively went down. With the extra playing time, he’ll have an extremely high chance of hitting this line again!

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