The final day to sign a rookie extension has come and gone, with several players signing massive deals. We’ll discuss what this means for players and teams and potential long-term impacts.
Jalen Green's career up until this point has been a mixed bag. The number 2 pick in the draft has struggled to adapt his game to the NBA after his time in the NBA G-League with the Ignite. Green has always been a player who could fill the box score but has done little to win games. He’s averaged over 17 points a game since his rookie year on some less-than-desirable shooting splits. Though he’s struggled to play winning basketball, his talent has been unquestionable.
He finally found a breakout moment at the end of the 2023-24 season, as he turned his game around. In the final two months of the season, he was one of the best players in the league, scoring at a high level while leading Houston on a winning streak that nearly broke them into the play-in game over Golden State. Alas, they fell short of the playoffs again, but he proved he could be a winning player.
His contract, which averages around $35 million a year, is a gamble, though. That may seem like a lot, but in NBA money, that will be about 17% of the cap—a long way off a max contract. Still, that is a hefty price tag for a player who has only played winning basketball for a few months. However, if there is a couch that can make him a winning player, it’s Ime Ukoka. This Houston team will be a must-watch this season, as they are poised to be a breakout team in a loaded western conference.
Staying with Houston, Jalen Green wasn’t the only player to get paid. Alperen Sengun landed a massive deal with Houston, signing with them through 2030. The 5-year deal will net Sengun around $32 million annually on average. The big man from Turkey was a breakout star with his old-school style. As one of the most talented post players in the league, Sengun had a stellar year that was only derailed by injury late in the season. However, he still managed to play 63 games and averaged nearly 21 points and 10 rebounds a game. The 22-year-old remains a valuable piece in this Houston offense. However, there are still some concerns surrounding him.
Though Sengun found tons of personal success last year, it wasn’t until his injury that the rest of the team found their success. The team found a new gear when he went down, with Green leading the charge. It’s unfair to say Sengun was holding them back, especially looking at the strength of the schedule through that portion of the season. Regardless, this winning streak did lead some to believe Sengun might be on the trading block. Those thoughts are all but gone, as this contract seems to suggest their long-term commitment.
Another player to have a breakout season was Jalen Johnson. Johnson went from 5.6 points and 4 rebounds a game to 16 points and 8 rebounds while improving his 3-point shooting percentage by nearly 10%. To say he made a leap may be an understatement. Atlanta believes Johnson is a crucial piece going forward. They need him, too, as they have struggled to put the piece together since their epic Easter Conference Finals run. With some big swings on guys like Dejounte Murray and De'Andre Hunter, they need Johnson.
Johnson isn't coming cheap at the price tag of $30 million a year on average. This contract is a risk for a player who has only contributed at a high level for one year. The risk is well founded, however, as it’s nearly impossible to find players like Johnson available in the NBA without trading an arm and a leg for them. If this Atlanta team is going to pull themselves out of their rut, they will need Johnson.
The only thing about this deal that surprises us is why it took so long. Trey Murphy has been a critical contributor to the Pelicans for a couple of years now. His size and shooting ability have made him invaluable next to Zion Williams, along with Brandon Ingram's frequent absences. Murphy remains a bright spot on offense, with his 3-point percentage hovering near 40%. While nearly $34 million a year, this contract is a solid deal for both sides. Locking in Murphy to this roster at a reasonable number for his talents.
The real question this contract creates is what New Orleans will do with Brandon Ingram. Ingram came to New Orleans via the Anthony Davis trade and has been a critical player. However, he’s struggled to remain available with multiple injuries. He is also on a contract year and is looking to sign a new deal that could be close to $200 million over four years. Clearly, there is some hesitancy to commit fully to Ingram, and with this new Murphy contract, we could see both parties part ways during or after this season.
The Magic lock in the former Gonzaga star Jalen Suggs to a 5-year 150.5 million dollar deal. Even though Sugg struggled to find his footing in the league the first couple of years, he has grown into an elite player. He may be a top 5 defensive guard in the league after 3 years. His defensive prowess justifies this contract, making him nearly $30 million annually on average. That is a huge number for a player that scores just 12 points, 3 rebounds, and 2 assists a game. Which shows you just how much they value this guy as a defender. His ability to shut down guards makes him invaluable to a Magic team with high expectations.
Another former Gonzaga player, Corey Kisper, signed a great deal with the Washington Wizards. Kisper has been a consistent score for the Wizards since being drafted. Shooting nearly 40% on six threes a game, the 6’6 small forward has been elite. Though he's not much of a defender, he’s become an excellent role player for this downtrodden team. Signing a 4 year 54 million dollar deal is a win-win here. Keeping the sharpshoot on a modest deal at only $13.5 million a year, he’ll hopefully be able to help this young roster find early success.
The Golden State Warriors picked up Moses Moodey at a discount. The former Arkansas player has struggled to find his role in Golden State. The 6’6 shooting guard hasn’t seen consistent minutes since joining the roster. Though steadily improving, he’s still below where Golden State hoped he’d be. Shooting at the 36% mark from 3, he’s far from a knockdown shooter. Averaging just 8 points in 17 minutes a game, Moodey has a long way to go before he finds a more significant role. However, he’ll likely stick around the Warriors for a while on this contract. With hopes that he can still elevate his game, the 22-year-old has plenty of time to improve.
Though, he doesn’t have forever. As Brandin Podziemski and Buddy Hield have already surpassed him in the depth chart, reclaiming guard minutes might be hard for Moodey. Instead, we expect to see Moodey get some time at the three as it’s increasingly unclear if Andrew Wiggins will be playable. If the Warriors can find some positive minutes for him there, this contract could be a home run for the team!
Kuminga has been a mixed bag for the Golden State Warriors. While he has shown brighter flashes than Moodey, he expects to be compensated for his peak performances, not his averages, which has made the situation awkward. Kumgina has undoubtedly shown up more on the box scores, but that hasn’t led to team success. His lack of rebounding and head-down style of play has clashed with Kerr’s fluid ball movement, which has led to so much success. Now, expecting to get paid near a max rookie extension, it makes sense that the team plans to take this to free agency.
I'm not saying Kuminga is a lousy player, but paying him nearly $30+ million a year seems too rich. With Golden State holding his restricted free agency rights, he may need help finding a number like that on the open market. If he does, there is a real chance Golden State may opt to let him go instead of getting tied up in a massive contract. That’s why we believe he’ll likely be traded this season.
Golden State isn’t the exact title team from the 2010s. Curry and Green still have a ton of winning potential, but the team is stuck in limbo. The roster is too talented to tank for a draft pick, but it is not good enough as it is constructed to break out for the West. They also failed to bring in star-level players in the off-season, striking out on Paul George and Lauri Markkanen. We’ll see if Golden State wants to deal with Kuminga in the off-season or if they’d try to upgrade the roster by trading him.
Speaking of a player who has already dealt with a trade, Josh Giddey was moved in the off-season to Chicago. Giddey seemed to wear out his welcome in OKC after a miserable post-season, where he became nearly unplayable. Though, that’s not entirely his fault. Most of Giddey’s issues come from the fact that OKC had better players in his position. The 22-year-old still has plenty of talent to say in this league, but he will have to show that to Chicago. Even before playing a game, Giddey and his camp aimed for a deal that would pay Giddey nearly $30 million a year. At that price tag, Chicago opted to take Giddey to free agency. It makes sense, too. Giddey hasn’t played a single game in Chicago yet. We think Giddey will thrive in Chicago, even though the team might not feel the same success.