The Dallas Mavericks will look to replicate what the Celtics accomplished on Monday night, sweeping their way through the Conference Finals. After beating the Wolves by a combined 4 points in Games 1 and 2, the Mavs won Game 3 116-107 to take a 3-0 series lead.
Dallas has not only dominated this series from a win/loss perspective but from a betting perspective as well. The Mavericks are 3-0 against the spread, with all 3 games of the series finishing over the total.
Looking at the odds for Game 4, Dallas is currently a 2-point favorite with the Minnesota moneyline sitting at +110. The consensus total is sitting right at 211 points.
As anyone involved with the NBA knows, coming back from a 0-3 deficit is impossible. It's never happened, and will not happen in this series. Facing certain elimination, it would take an incredibly gutty performance from the Wolves to beat the Mavs in Dallas tonight.
Bookmakers have been extremely hesitant to react to what we've seen play out through the first three games of the series. Every game has gone over, every game has gone over 213 points, and yet the total sits at 211 once again.
The Mavs have covered in three straight games, and have a chance to sweep at home, and yet this line sits just a half-point higher than the Game 3 spread.
The Derek Lively injury is concerning but between added minutes for Gafford and the return of Kleber, the Mavs should have no trouble filling the Lively minutes tonight.
We like the over as well, but have to lock in the Mavs laying just 2 points at home, in a closeout situation, as our best bet.
With Lively out of this game due to the head injury sustained in Game 3, we are looking at Luka Doncic’s rebound prop to hit the over as he will be the primary rebounder when Gafford is off the floor.
The superstar hit this mark in 12 of 19 games without Lively during the regular season and has averaged a formidable 9.3 RPG during this postseason run. In a game where Minnesota will attempt to attack the rim more, look for additional weak-side rebounding opportunities for Doncic.
McDaniels has been a saving grace for Minnesota this postseason, and they will need him to come up clutch tonight to extend this series. McDaniels has gone for 24/2/15 against Dallas while playing 32+ minutes in each affair.
A solid 3-point shooter with the ability to score in the paint off the dribble, we believe McDaniels will be a focal point of the Wolves’ offense tonight. Bet on him to cover his 10.5 points prop.
Playing nearly 20 minutes per game this series, NAW hasn’t found his shooting stroke yet against the Mavs but that should change tonight. With Lively out, expect the Mavs defense to become more compressed when Gafford is off the floor, leading to additional Wolves 3-point attempts or drive-and-kick opportunities.
Alexander-Walker has shot 4 or more field goals in each contest this series while only hitting the four-point mark once. With the volume there, we trust the Wolves' backup guard to make some big shots today.
Coming off a 33-point performance, we are expecting Irving to find his rhythm as a playmaker in Game 4. Averaging 5.3 APG this postseason, hitting the 5-assist mark in four of seven home games, look for Kyrie to find open cutters and shooters including Derrick Jones Jr. who might see some additional playing time if the Mavs are dealing with rebounding issues.