The Timberwolves had the champs on the ropes after winning games 1 and 2 in Denver, but the Nuggets roared back to win games 3, 4, and 5. Denver now has an opportunity to close out the series in Minnesota tonight.
After dropping the first 2 games at home, Denver has won outright and covered the spread in each of the last 3 games. The total has followed a similar path, with the under cashing in games 1 and 2 and the over cashing in games 3, 4, and 5.
The Game 6 odds opened with Minnesota favored by 3, but early action on Denver has moved the line to -2. The total opened at 205.5 with the consensus line currently sitting at 205.
After starting this series scoring just 99 points in game 1 and 80 points in game 2, the Denver offense has it's groove back. The Nuggets have averaged 115 PPG over their last 3, and look like a lock to score 102+ in Game 6.
We know they will get Minnesota's best defensive effort, but Jokic has looked like a puzzle they simply can't solve in the past 3 outings.
Michael Porter Jr. averaged 23 PPG in the series against the Lakers, had only 10 points in games 4 and 5 combined, and the Nuggets still scored 112+ in both outings.
While we lean Denver and the points in Game 6, the more obvious play is their team total over 101.5.
Christian Braun is getting the minutes he deserves and with those minutes, he’s been capitalizing. The NCAA and NBA Champion has gone for 11 and 10 points in back-to-back wins, while securing 11 boards in the Nuggets last three victories.
Due to play around 25 minutes in this one, expect Braun to be a focal point on offense after Jokic gets doubled inside the arc. Denver is incredible at swinging and cutting, so Braun should be the beneficiary of the style of the game today.
Ball rotation is key this series and for Anthony Edwards, those key passes will have to be made from the double-team. Denver is trapping everything above the three-point line with ANT, and it’s difficult for him to get increased assist numbers because of this.
Even if he finds the open man off the double, it’s normally another swing or kick to the open man in the corner.
Similar to Kyrie Irving, Edwards is coming off a 9-assist game but needs to be more aggressive as a scorer in order for the Wolves to win this game. Kyrie dropped just four dimes last night and Anthony Edwards should be looking at that same output.
Although Pope hasn’t had the shooting playoffs one might have hoped, Coach Malone and the staff continue to trust him with big minutes and tough defensive assignments.
After hitting four threes in Game 5, we are looking for KCP to make a few from downtown again due to the Wolves constant attention on stopping Jokic down low and Murray at the pick and roll.
The ball rotation to the corner will be open, and KCP the veteran will capitalize. Bet on him to make 2+ 3-pointers in Game 6.
While Jackson hasn’t been a massive part of this series, the veteran guard is still playing 9.6 minutes per game while shooting the ball efficiently. He’s gone 7 for 11 in Denver’s last three wins, scoring 6 points in each game off the bench.
Once a key contributor for the Clippers in Game 6 situations, look for Reggie Jackson to shine against the Minnesota bench unit, a unit he’s been +22 against in the Nuggets’ three wins.