Shai Gilgeous-Alexander scored 22 points in the second half of Game 4, carrying the Thunder to a come-from-behind win. This second-round series with the Dallas Mavericks is now tied at 2 games apiece.
These teams have traded blows through the first four games, with winning outright and covering the spread twice. The under has cashed in 3 out of 4 games, missing by nearly 20 points in Game 4.
Turning to the Game 5 odds, the Thunder opened as 5.5-point favorites, with early action on the Mavs moving that consensus line to 4.5. The total opened at 215.5, but under-bettors moved the consensus number down to 212.5.
We've been successful betting the under throughout this series, which was a safe alternative to betting against either of these teams. Both of these teams are playing extremely well, making it impossible to bet against either side.
Including this series, Dallas has covered the spread in 6 of its last 9 games, while OKC has covered in 9 of its 12. Dallas is just 1-4 in its last 5 games in Oklahoma City, but they feel like the better team through 4 games.
Looking at the total, these teams have scored 214 points or more in just one game of the series. Looking at the entirety of OKC's playoff run, only 2 games have gone over this number. In fact, the under has cashed in 5 of the Thunder's last 6 games, and 9 of their last 11.
This is a tough series to handicap, but we are going to continue betting the under-Thunder until it stops cashing.
Irving has dominated as a playmaker this series, recording 9/7/11 assists over his last three games for the Mavs including 20 potential assists in Game 4. As the series shifts back to Oklahoma City, look for Irving to continue to play make for his bigs early and often.
With Irving just one assist shy of Doncic and two ahead of SGA through four games of this series, there is a solid chance the veteran guard ends up with the most assists in this second-round series which is sitting at +700 right now on most books.
Just sticking with Game 5 though, look for Dallas's game plan with Irving as the main facilitator to continue to hold as they look to hold onto the momentum they were building in the first three-quarters of Game 4.
It’s almost laughable that Josh Giddey is starting for OKC at this point. He’s been outplayed by Aaron Wiggins and Cason Wallace all series, and that has shown with his minutes dropping to just around 13 per game during this series.
Ultimately, as a poor shooter and thin defender, this series doesn’t hold a place for him to play more than 10 minutes per contest so the 10.5 PRA number will be difficult to hit.
Giddey has hit this mark just once in four games in this Round 2 matchup while hitting just 2 of 11 attempted 3-pointers. With Cason Wallace providing defensive energy and shotmaking that Giddey lacks, expect another quiet game from the Aussie.