Clippers vs Mavericks: Best Bets and Player Prop Picks for Game 6
The Dallas Mavericks blew out the LA Clippers in Game 5, and now hold a 3-2 series lead with an opportunity to close out the series at home.
The Mavericks had 6 players hit double-digit scoring in Game 5, led by a 35 point performance from Luka. Dallas shot 54% from the floor and racked up 27 assists on 47 made baskets.
Meanwhile, for the Clippers, Paul George and James Harden really struggled, combining to shoot just 6-for-25 from the floor. Both players will need to be considerably better if LA is going to pull of the upset on Friday and extend this series to a Game 7.
Dallas opened as an 8-point consensus favorite at home, with several sportsbooks now offering them at -7.5. The total opened at 207 and now sits at a consensus number of 208.
Best Bet: LA Clippers +8
Put simply, this is just way too many points, and is a complete overreaction to what we saw in Game 5. Prior to Game 5, the scoring differential for this series was Clippers +3.
We know better than to say 'there's no way LA plays that bad again', but it would be really tough to play as poorly as they did in Game 5. Keep in mind, LA shot 54% from the floor and 62% from the field in Game 4.
While we do think the Mavs find a way to close out the series tonight, it will be much tighter than 8 points. This line has been moving away from LA throughout the day on Friday, so we may be able to find a +8.5 or +9 prior to tipoff.
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C Dereck Lively (DAL): Over 14.5 PRA
The rookie big man has made a serious impact in his first postseason series, sporting a positive +/- in all games except Game 1’s loss. The rook has seen his minutes jump up in the last two games from 15, to 18, to 25.
Averaging 14.8 PRA in the series while hitting this PRA over in his last three outings, look for Kidd and the Mavs to put their trust into Lively once again to win his matchup against Plumlee off the bench at times, Zubac who is less versatile.
G James Harden (LAC): Over 2.0 1Q Assists
While we won’t trust Harden with any game-long props tonight, his 1st quarter assist prop is the one we are looking at for Game 6. Harden has gone 3/3/1/3/4 AST in the five games through this series as he initiates early on as a playmaker.
The one miss was in Dallas during Game 3 when Leonard played and the Clips put up just 90 points total. History is also on our side here as James averages 2.3 APG in 110 playoff 1st quarters throughout his career.