Timberwolves vs Suns: Best Bets and Player Prop Picks for Game 3
The Timberwolves lead its series with the Suns 2-0 as we head to to Phoenix for a pivotal game 3 matchup.
Last night (2-0 best bets for Bettors Insider) we saw Orlando and Philly defend home court and remain alive in their respective series. Can Phoenix take a similar route and find a way to win a game against Minnesota?
The Suns opened as 3.5-point favorites, but early money has moved that line to 4.5 at most sportsbooks. The total opened at 209.5 and now sits at 208.5 across the board.
This game will be broadcast on ESPN at 10:30 PM EDT.
Our Best Bet: Suns Win First Half / Timberwolves Win Game (+500)
We rarely give out first half/game combos, but this bet really jumped out at first glance. It's hard to feel great betting the Suns given they lost the first two games of this series by an average of 16 points. That said, the Timberwolves moneyline currently sits at just +164, not a great payout for taking a road team in the Playoffs.
Digging into the numbers a bit, over the last 3 matchups between these teams, the Suns have won the first half by an average of 1.5 points, while the Timberwolves have won the game by an average of 6 points.
We like this storyline to continue tonight, with the Suns getting a nice first-half boost from the home crowd and the Timberwolves eventually winning a close game.
This is a tough ticket to cash, as you're taking an underdog moneyline and assuming they are spotting the home team points in the second half. However, at +500 odds we think it's worth a sprinkle.
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G Devin Booker (PHX): Over 6.0 AST
Booker hasn’t been himself in both games against the Wolves in the first round. He’s averaging just 19 PPG and 5 APG while the Suns have been outplayed and outhustled. As the series moves to Phoenix, look for Booker to take more of a point guard role and ball handling duties to try and get momentum of this series back.
At home, he averaged 7.4 APG, including 8.3 APG against the Wolves in three games during the regular season. Look for Book to get back on track in The Valley.
F Jaden McDaniels (MIN): Under 11.5 PTS
The star of Game 2 is due to fall back down to Earth in Game 3 away from home. McDaniels is coming off a 25 point outburst at home to secure a 2-0 series lead for the Wolves.
Averaging less than 30% shooting from beyond the arc in away games this season and just 8.3 PPG against the Suns in their three regular season matchups, his Game 2 performance boosted his points prop for game 3. However, don't let this fool you in what should be a lower-scoring, tightly contested Game 3 in Phoenix.
First Basket Sprinkle: Kevin Durant (+500)
If we are going off trends with this pick, Durant has to be worth a sprinkle. He took the first 2 shots for the Suns in game 1 and 2 of the first 3 shots in game 2. He's the favorite to score first tonight, but we are still getting a +500 price on this bet.