NBA Betting Strategy from Alloy Sports: 'Quality over Quantity' looks at efficiency

This article is highlighting a profitable backtested strategy from Alloy Sports. Plug this strategy in and see what games to bet on. Or create your own. Click here to sign up for free!

Win Percentage: 61.33%

Return on Investment: 18.42%

The NBA conference finals are here! Our Alloy Forecasts continue to churn out profitable strategies on a weekly basis. We look to continue that trend this week with our Quality over Quantity betting strategy.

This week, we’re going to look at a bit of reverse psychology when it comes to the data. We have found from past strategies that sometimes sportsbooks and sports bettors overvalue certain statistics, which in turn leads them to shift odds higher for certain games. We found that to be true for this strategy as well.

The "Quality over Quantity" strategy looks at the lower value of three points attempts combined with free throw attempts. Three pointers and free throws are two stats that oddsmakers and public bettors factor heavily when choosing their bets. We hypothesized that the team that made the most of fewer opportunities may have some value ATS. Using filters, we looked specifically at home teams coming off a loss.

This strategy is hitting well in the slight favorite spread bucket of -5 to 0. Backtested from this season, this strategy is hitting in 61% of games and garnering an 18% return on investment. Because it is later in the playoffs, there may not be too many games to bet as this strategy has multiple filter requirements. When there are games to bet, make sure to take advantage.

Stats in Use: 3-point attempts per game * Free throw attempts per game

Metric Value: Lower

Filters in Use: Location: Home, Your Team Consecutive Losses > 0