NBA Playoffs: Mims picks the Sixers vs Heat, Game One and the series – It all depends on health of Joel Embiid

The Philadelphia 76ers are going against the Miami Heat in the second round of the NBA Playoffs after the Sixers took care of the Toronto Raptors in six games. The bad news is that Joel Embiid will miss at least the first two games of this series. He suffered a fractured orbital and a mild concussion in the close out win against Toronto.

Miami totally dominated the Atlanta Hawks and took that series 4-1. They also suffered two significant injuries in Game s 3 and 4 of the series. Jimmy Butler is expected to play but Kyle Lowry is out for Game One.

The numbers: The Heat are -420 to win the Series. The Sixers are +320. The opening line was Heat -155 and Sixers +135. This is a tremendous line movement based on the announcement of Embiid’s injury on Friday.

Game One numbers: Heat are -7.5 and the total is 208. The money line is Heat -350 and Sixers +280.

Coaching Match Up: Doc Rivers and Erik Spoelstra. Spoelstra get the edge over Rivers for in game adjustments and defensive schemes.

Prop Bets: Tyrese Maxey over 22.5 points is set at a price of -110. Maxey will get more shots because of Embiid not being in the lineup. He goes over. Jimmy Butler over 6.5 rebounds. The price is high at -135 but Butler has ten rebounds in each of the last two games against the Hawks. Take him over.

The Series: If Embiid were playing, the Sixers would be ready for the Heat. Joel would put up strong numbers against Bam Adebayo. Since he is not, the Sixers will be hard pressed to replace 30 points and 12 rebounds. If he returns and is close to normal production in Game 3, the Sixers will have a chance to make this a series. If not, Then Miami will when in 5 games.

The Game: I expect the Heat to win the first game. The Sixers will have to see how Miami plays them and adjust for Game 2. Take the Heat -7.5 and over 208. The Heat should exceed their team total of 108.5.

Follow me on Twitter as I live tweet during the third quarter of the game tonight.