NBA Betting Strategy from Alloy Sports: 'The Mike Bordick' – Teams who take care of ball but wreak havoc on D
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Win Percentage: 66.07%
Projected Earnings: (from $15 bet): $234.55
Return on Investment: 27.92%
This week's forecast was conceptualized by Alloy advisor and former MLB All-Star, Mike Bordick. Throughout his career, Bordick’s calling card was his impeccable work ethic and tremendous defense. Bordick still holds the MLB record with 543 consecutive defensive chances without an error.
Naturally, Bordick’s 14-year career in the majors inspired us to build an NBA strategy with his playing characteristics. This week’s strategy combines assists to turnover ratio, offensive rebounding and steals. We’re looking for teams that don’t turn the ball over yet force turnovers. These teams out-hustle their opponents and get second chance opportunities.
In this strategy we used two filters. We’re looking for our sample size to only show games where the opponent had winning records. We also require our team to have at least nine steals per game. Putting emphasis on the need for a strong and opportune defense.
This strategy is what we call “sticky,” meaning it converts well year-over-year. For a two year sample size, the close favorites have won 60% of games yielding an 18% return on investment. The heavy favorites bucket is also profitable but our primary target would be the close favorites.
Bordick’s strategy has performed even better looking at just this year. Every spread bucket is profitable this season but two stand out. We’re looking strongly at the close favorite and close underdog spread buckets. For just this season, close favorites have won 66% of games yielding a 27% return on investment. If you bet $15 for every game in that category this season, you would net over $230!
The close underdogs have also performed well this season. With a larger sample size over 80 games, the close favorites have won 56% of the time, yielding a 9% ROI.
Stats in Use: Assists turnover ratio * Offensive rebounds per game * Steals per game
Metric Value: Higher
Filters in Use: Opponent Win % > 55, Your Team Steals per Game > 8