NBA Betting Strategy from Alloy Sports: 'The Anti-Shaq' – big men who rebound AND make foul shots pays off
This article is highlighting a profitable backtested strategy from Alloy Sports. Plug this strategy in and see what games to bet on. Or create your own. Click here to sign up for free!
Win Percentage: 62.63%
Projected Earnings: (from $15 bet): $305.45
Return on Investment: 20.57%
Alloy named this the “The Anti Shaq Strategy” and it relies on big men cleaning up the offensive glass, getting to the free throw line and converting their free throw attempts... unlike Shaq.
The strategy combines free throw percentage and offensive rebounds and specifically looked at free throw percentage for power forwards. Alloy found a lot of value in adding an "Away" filter as well. When a team has a power forward that can consistently make their free throws, they have a much higher percentage of winning games and the data proves that.
Data results from the Ant-Shaq Strategy.Alloy Sports
Three spread buckets are profitable for data backtested this season. The real value comes from heavy favorites and heavy underdogs hitting 63% and 56% of the time, respectively. The heavy favorites bucket of “under -5” is netting a 22% ROI. That’s a great number to see when building strategies over the course of a season. If you bet $15 for every game in the “under -5” spread bucket this season, you would have net over $350.
Stats in Use: Free throws pct (PF) * Offensive rebounds per game
Metric Value: Higher
Filters in Use: Location: Away