O'Sullivan's Tuesday NBA Picks: A parlay with Bucks at Pistons and Rockets at Lakers, plus a Luka Doncic prop

Milwaukee Bucks at Detroit Pistons 7 pm EDT, Miami Heat at Dallas Mavericks 7:30 pm, Houston Rockets at Los Angeles Lakers 10:30 pm.
O'Sullivan thinks Luka Doncic may have a tougher-than-usual night against the Miami Heat.
O'Sullivan thinks Luka Doncic may have a tougher-than-usual night against the Miami Heat.@dallasmavs on Twitter

Ironically, after all that, the only wager I won last night was the player prop. Go figure.

Seattle O’Sullivan 2021-2022 NBA Season so far: 29-39-2, -$171.30

Moneyline Parlay: Milwaukee Bucks -210 w/Los Angeles Lakers -590 - true price -138, bet $13.80 to win $10.

A number of Milwaukee Bucks will be out against Detroit tonight: Jrue Holiday, Brook Lopez, and Khris Middleton. That's pushed Milwaukee's moneyline price down. But Giannis Antetokoumpo is probable, and he should be enough against arguably the worst team in the NBA. The Pistons don’t get much of an advantage playing at home; they’re 1-5 against the spread in their last six games. But I just want the Bucks and the Lakers to win. Los Angeles is at home and that should be enough against Houston.

Player Prop: Luka Doncic Under 25.5 points (-106), bet $10.60 to win $10

Doncic’s Dallas Mavericks are playing the hottest team in the league right now, the Miami Heat. Currently, Miami’s defense is the best in the NBA too, allowing fewer points than any other team. They’re first in opponent’s field goal percentage and fourth in opponent’s three-point percentage. All of this spells trouble for Dallas and Doncic. I think Miami will be out to shut the Maverick superstar down, and while they might not do it completely, they’ll be effective enough to keep Doncic under this 25.5.

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