Thursday NBA Picks: Hawks v Wizards, Spurs v Mavericks, Grizzlies v Warriors, 2 parlays, Donovan Mitchell prop
O'Sullivan likes the Jazz, DOnovan Mitchell and Mike Conley's 'fro.@mconley11 on Twitter

Thursday NBA Picks: Hawks v Wizards, Spurs v Mavericks, Grizzlies v Warriors, 2 parlays, Donovan Mitchell prop

O'Sullivan picks Atlanta Hawks at Washington Wizards, 7 pm Eastern, San Antonio Spurs at Dallas Mavericks, 8:30 pm, Memphis Grizzlies at Golden State Warriors, 10 pm, and much more.

Seattle O’Sullivan 2021-2022 NBA Season so far: 19-25-1, -$114.51

Atlanta Hawks at Washington Wizards, 7 pm Eastern

The Pick: Washington +3.5 (-114), bet $11.40 to win $10

Both of these teams played on the road last night, and both teams won. Washington beat Boston relatively easily by nine; Atlanta had to sweat out a tight one against New Orleans. So a “home dog” pick makes sense, here. The Wizards are 3-1 against the spread this year, and 4-2 against the spread in their last six going back to last year. While Atlanta is a team on the rise, as a divisional rival, Washington plays them well, going a respectable 4-6 (6-4 ATS) in the last ten matchups. I think the Wizards might be better than expected this season, and this is an opportunity for them to prove it.

San Antonio Spurs at Dallas Mavericks, 8:30 pm Eastern

The Pick: Dallas -280, bet $21 to win $7.50

After winning its opener, San Antonio has dropped three straight, and now kicks off a three-game road trip against a Dallas team who, after getting shellacked by Atlanta, has won two in a row. Maverick Luka Doncic leads his team in points, rebounds, and assists, and frankly, there’s no one on the Spurs who matches up with him. Not only will I take Dallas straight up here, but I’ll also use the Mavericks to help me lower the price of some other steep prices.

Moneyline parlay: Philadelphia -650/Dallas - 280/Utah -450 - true price -110, bet $11 to win $10

Because I think Dallas will handle San Antonio, I’ll tie them with Philadelphia and Utah, who are each playing terrible teams, in order to get a serviceable price. Speaking of Utah…

Player Prop: Utah’s Donovan Mitchell Over 25.5 points & Over 4.5 assists against Houston +275, bet $5.00 to win $13.75

I’m expecting the 3-0 Jazz to continue taking care of business tonight, and for Jazz guard Mitchell to lead the way. His points per game average is only 21.7 but is actually 27.0 on the road. The Houston Rockets are young and should prove a chance for Mitchell to have a nice game, and the value is there. I’ll put a little bit down to get a little bit more.

Memphis Grizzlies at Golden State Warriors, 10 pm Eastern

The Pick: Golden State -250, bet $25 to win $10, Memphis +6 (-110), bet $7.70 to win $7

The bad news for Memphis: they’re playing their fourth straight game on the road against 4-0 Golden State, after getting blown out by Portland last night. The good news: because they got blown out last night, they rested Ja Morant for most of the fourth quarter. He’ll be more rested than he would’ve been had last night been a tight game. I think the Warriors pull this out but I’m going to try to “middle” it. The Grizzlies play hard, they crash the boards and hit threes, and Morant will be eager to go blow-for-blow with Stephen Curry.

Moneyline parlay: Washington +130/New York +100/Memphis +205 - true price +1303, bet $1 to win $13.03

…and if Memphis happens to pull the upset, I’ll have them paired with the Wizards, who I like enough to play on their own, and the New York Knicks, who I think will beat the Chicago Bulls, for a potential score. Chicago has started off 4-0 but has played the Detroit Pistons twice and an underperforming New Orleans Pelicans. I can see the Knicks, with former Bulls coach Tom Thibodeau and Bulls star Derrick Rose, coming up with a little something extra. (shrug) It’s a dollar. (I reserve the right, if Washington and New York both win, to hedge this before the Memphis/Golden State game.)

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