Fats Tuesday NBA Prop Picks: Fats likes Al Horford, Chris Paul, Ja Morant, Jonas Valanciunas, & Nets vs Suns
Thought the Nets-Kings would set up well for stat-sheet-stuffer James Harden so I took a +500 chance that it might be time for a triple-double. I did not expect him to get it before the 4th quarter, but Harden had a 3rd quarter stretch in which nearly every possession was either a point, a rebound or an assist. Add in a +260 Knicks parlay win and Fats had another good night. Am I getting smarter? Are the teams playing more consistently? Is my luck merely evening out? Don't know. Don't care.
Looking at three games tonight. The Nets/Kings crushed the over last night and tonight's Nets/Suns over is 10 points lower. As none of the Nets played crazy minutes yesterday I expect another shootout and the guard matchups should be fun. Since I'm thinking the game will have a lot of pace, I'm thinking Chris Paul will have a lot of assist opportunities. He's averaging over 8. Tonight, 10 would be nice as part of a +225 double-double.
I'm expecting a similar game as the Pelicans face the Grizzlies. Ja Morant has been averaging 9.8 assists over the past 5 games. I'm taking him tonight for a +140 double-double and also like Grizz big Jonas Valanciunas to go over 31.5 PRA.
Last game for me is the Trail Blazers vs. Thunder. Gary Trent Jr. let me down last game going under 22.5 PRS for the first time in his last 7 appearances, so I'm going back to the well and looking for him to go over a 22.5 PRA in OKC. Also, like a rejuvenated Al Horford to go over 26.5 PRA. The longshot of the night is a Horford double-double. He's only had two this season (points-rebounds), but since Shai Gilgeous-Alexander went out, Horford has had three games with over 8 assists. Since the Blazers are not a defensive powerhouse, I think there will be chances for Horford in all three categories and at +460, he seems a worthy chance to take.
All wagers and returns based on $10. Please check game time lineups before wagering.
Pelicans at GRIZZLIES 8:05 pm EST, Trail Blazers at THUNDER 8:05 pm, Nets at SUNS 10:35 pm.
3-pointers: Al Horford (Thunder) double-double +460 (returns $56.00)
Chris Paul (Suns) double-double +225 (returns $32.50)
2-pointers: Ja Morant (Grizzlies) double-double +140 (returns $24.00)
Free throws: Jonas Valanciunas (Grizzlies) over 31.5 points, rebounds, assists -110 (returns $19.10)
Steals: Nets vs Suns over 231 -112 (returns $19.00)
Free throws: Al Horford (Thunder) over 26.5 points, rebounds, assists -125 (returns $18.00)
3-pointers: James Harden (Nets) triple-double +500 (returns $60.00) Harden goes 29-13-14 in 34 minutes.
Knicks +1.5 over Hawks and Over 218 +260 (returns $36.00) Knicks won 123-112 as Julius Randle goes off for 44.
Free throws: RJ Barrett (Knicks) over 23.5 points, rebounds, assists -110 (returns $19.10) Barrett goes 21-6-3 for a 30 PRA.
Elfrid Payton (Knicks) Over 11.5 points -110 (returns $19.10). A late 8-point run from Payton got him to 12 points.
Steals: Kings vs. Nets under 242.5 -113 (returns $18.90) Nets won 136-126. That's a lot of points without Kevin Durant but Kyrie scored 40.
$50 wagered (4-1), $134.20 returned.*
Day 51: +$84.20*
Total: +$113.05 (115-126 off 241 $10 wagers)
The Moneyline Experiment
Monday's moneyline contests:
CELTICS -137 returns $17.30
BUCKS -250 returns $14.00
Lakers -265 returns $13.80
Trail Blazers -210 returns $14.80
SUNS -210 returns $14.80
On Monday the moneyline went 4-3.
Day 5 ML: 4-3. Bet $70. Returned $57.80, -$12.20.
Total: 23-15 -18.90