Thursday NBA prop picks: Fats likes Embiid, Siakam, Jerami Grant, & the Warriors – and looks at the moneyline
It was bound to happen, but Fats crashed back to Earth last night leaving a gelatinous splat somewhere in Indiana. The 2-6 was bad enough, but not as bad as the Pacers played against the Nets. Yuck.
Tonight I'm sticking with players who have been on consistent runs and hoping for no blowouts so they play reasonable minutes.
I also like the Warriors at home against the depleted Magic who are on the second leg of a West Coast swing.
All wagers and returns based on $10. Please check game time lineups before wagering.
Raptors at CELTICS 7:35 pm, Pacers at PISTONS 8:05 pm, MAGIC AT WARRIORS, 10:05 pm, 76ERS AT TRAIL BLAZERS 10:05 pm
Free throws: Warriors -8 Over Magic -107 (returns $19.40)
Pascal Siakam (Raptors) Over 30.5 points, rebounds, assists -110 (returns $19.10)
Joel Embiid (76ers) Over 44.5 points, rebounds, assists -110 (returns $19.10)
Jerami Grant (Pistons) Over 22.5 points -110 (returns $19.10)
Thursday Moneyline Wagers
Someone asked Fats the other day about the importance of win percentage in betting the NBA.
"Why don't you win more?" he asked.
"Well, for about a month, I sucked," I explained in that professorial way I have. "And the NBA sucked. Combining the two led to enormous suckiness."
Obviously, it's better to win than lose, but if you bet a lot of longshots and win a small percentage, you may come out ahead in the wallet from someone who wins a lot of bets with low-paying favorites.
This annoying fellow then asked, so what would happen if you just bet the favorite every day on the money line? I'm sure someone has done this research, but the NBA is so wacky this year I'm going see for myself:
No point spreads here. The favorite just has to win.
Heat -132 over ROCKETS $10 returns $17.60
CELTICS -143 over Raptors $10 returns $17.00
Pacers -150 over PISTONS $10 returns $16.70
Sixers -210 over TRAIL BLAZERS $10 returns $14.10
WARRIORS -315 over Magic $10 returns $13.20
Let's see how we do.
2-pointers: Trae Young (Hawks) Over 4.5 rebounds +137 (returns $23.70). Young had 7 boards.
Free throws: Hawks vs. Mavericks Over 232.5 points -112 (returns $19.00) The Mavs won 118-117. That 64-point 4th quarter was a keeper.
3-pointers: Domantas Sabonis (Pacers) triple-double +900 (returns $100.00) Sabonis finish 18-9-4. Hard to get assists when your team doesn't score.
James Harden (Nets) triple-double +300 (returns $40.00) Harden went 19-11-5, half his average assist total. This game was a dud.
2-pointers: LaMelo Ball (Hornets) double-double +150 (returns $25.70) Ball went 17-2-5 and never challenged for a double-double. And the Hornets never challenged the Grizzlies.
Cam Reddish (Hawks) Over 4.5 rebounds +110 (returns $21.00) Reddish seemed allergic to the ball last night with only one board.
Steals: Pacers over 117.5 -113 (returns $18.90) The Pacers had 30 points at the half and I changed channels to "Chicago Fire."
Kristaps Porzingis (Mavericks) Over 8.5 rebounds -118 (returns $18.50) The 7'3" Porzingis only snagged 4 rebounds. The same as 6'1" Jalen Brunson.
$80 wagered (2-6), $42.70 returned.
Day 46: -$37.30
Total: -$12.55 (100-116 off 216 $10 wagers)