NBA Playoffs: Mims picks game 1 of Milwaukee Bucks vs Miami Heat along with a prop bet and series prediction
The 2nd round matchup in the Eastern Conference is between the Bucks and the Heat. The Heat swept the Pacers 4-0 and the Bucks took care of the shorthanded Pacers 4 games to one.
The Heat won the season series from the Bucks 2-1. The Bucks average 118.7 points per game while giving up 108.6. The Heat average 112.0 points per game while surrendering 109. Both teams are strong defensively. Milwaukee does not let teams score in the paint. Miami looks to do their damage from outside.
The matchups:
Giannis Antetokounmpo vs. Bam Adebayo
Bam does play Giannis well defensively. Giannis will still get 25 points and 14 rebounds. Edge to Giannis.
Jimmy Butler vs. Khris Middleton
Butler will do everything while Middleton has not been consistent with his shooting. Butler gets the edge.
Brook Lopez vs Kelly Olynyk
Lopez wins easily.
Goran Dragic vs Eric Bledsoe
Dragic will score and get assists. Bledsoe is streaky. Goran wins their matchup.
Wes Matthews vs Duncan Robinson
Robinson wins due to his outside prowess.
The benches for both teams are even. Miami shoots 37.9 from 3-point range and 39.8 in their last three games. Bucks shoots 35.7 from deep and 41.2 in their last three games.
Butler is the glue guy for the Heat. Look for him to take the big shots and settled Miami down if the Bucks go on an extended run. Giannis is the reigning MVP and playing better this season. Expect Miami Coach Erik Spoelstra to have the Heat set a “wall defense” that will limit Giannis driving in half court sets.
The prop bet for Game One has Giannis listed rebounds at 14.5. Take him over. The Bucks win game one. The numbers are Heat +5.5 and the total is 223.
Bucks are favored for the series at -143. If you like the Heat, the price is set at +115.
I am going with Bucks to win the series and I think the series will go seven games.
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