NBA pick of the day: Nuggets vs Thunder —  Can Oklahoma City keep up its 65.5% cover rate ATS?

Push on Thursday, 96-89-2 overall.

Nuggets (+1.5) @ Thunder (215.5)

Pick: Nuggets +1.5

As good as the Thunder have been in 2019-2020, we do think there’s an element of regression bound to hit Oklahoma City before the regular season ends. The Thunder are going to be in the playoffs, which in and of itself is a surprise to some. The bigger surprise to gamblers though is Oklahoma City’s 36-19 ATS record coming out of the break. That’s good for an astonishing 65.5% cover rate. It’s simply too good to sustain which is why we’ll find ourselves fading the Thunder a good deal the rest of the regular season. The spot checks out tonight as we only need the Nuggets, a better team than the Thunder, to win the game. Granted, it is in Oklahoma City, but with Denver entering with a 17-10 straight-up record on the road, we don’t think we’re asking much here.