Spurs (+5.5) @ Heat (220)
Pick: Heat -5.5
Miami has earned our respect to where tonight’s game feels like more of a get-right spot for the Heat as opposed to the continuation of a short losing streak. The Heat just ended a short road trip with losses against the Nets and Knicks. Both of those could be signs of a team headed for a free fall, but at 27-12 and third in the Eastern Conference, Miami still deserves to be respected. The Heat are also far and away the best bet at home this season in the NBA covering at an astonishing 76.5% clip in South Beach in 2019-2020. Surely, that is bound to regress, but we don’t think tonight’s the night. Had the Heat won the games against Brooklyn and New York, this number might be a little bigger and we wouldn’t like the Miami side. This is a nice buy low on Erik Spoelstra’s team. Against a Spurs team that isn’t very good, the Heat get right back on track and roll to a double-digit victory.