The Raptors are leading the series, 3-1. Toronto is favored by 1.5 and the total is 214.5. These number were posted on William Hill. The Over/Under Totals are even for the series at 2. Toronto has covered three of the four games. They are very impressive at home. The Raptors were 32-9 straight up during the regular season.
The Warriors are hoping that Kevin Durant can save them and force a sixth game. He is listed as questionable. I would interpret that as 50% chance of playing. I expected KD to return in Game 4 with them being down, 2-1. So, the severity of the injury is more serious than the betting public knows, or he is not going because he does not want to make it worse. He is looking at a contract year status and may opt to leave Golden State. If he plays and can perform at 60% efficiency, the Warriors have a 45% chance of taking Game 5. Step Curry must have a 30-point game and Klay Thompson must score 22. I lean more toward Klay exceeding his projected total.
The Raptors have played better than the Warriors defensively thru out the series. They have made the right plays on offense with Pascal Siakam and Fred VanVleet. Kawhi Leonard is MVP right now. Kyle Lowry continues to play hard and aggressively. Lowry will score over 14 in this game. Leonard will get eight rebounds and over 25 points. Raptors do not want to go back to Oracle for Game 6. That would the fnal game ever to be played there. The crowd would make it hard to overcome the energy that the Warriors would bring.
If KD plays I like the game Over. Take Demarcus Cousins under on points and rebounds. Each of his games have shown a drop in production. I had the series going six games and Golden State winning. I also had the series going six straight up. Toronto knows tonight is the night. So, I am leaning toward a hedge play where I take the Raptors for half of my series wager and minimize the risk. If I am wrong, I will talk to you in 48 hours about Game 6.