Raptors (+7) @ Bucks (215.5)
Pick: Under 215.5
Pick: Raptors Team Total Under 104.5
This is one of my favorite spots in the NBA playoffs so far and certainly in the conference finals. Toronto just posted its most impressive win of the playoffs coasting to a 120-102 victory. In the win, the Raptors got a combined 48 points, 19 rebounds and 11 assists from Serge Ibaka, Norman Powell and Fred VanVleet. We’ve discussed in previous playoff handicaps that role players tend to step up at home and that’s certainly what happened on Tuesday and what the Raptors needed given how heavy the load was that Kawhi Leonard had been carrying. However, between the double overtime game on Sunday and the stellar bench play from the Raptors on Tuesday, we think we now have back-to-back fluky overs in this series. The over did not hit until the second overtime in Game 3 and we’re definitely not expecting the trio of Ibaka, Powell and VanVleet to be as productive as the series shifts back to Milwaukee for tonight’s Game 5. However, we’re not running to the window to back the Bucks laying three possessions in this spot either. Seven is a steep number in a game of this magnitude with series now even at two games apiece. The best way to bet tonight’s game is to bank on some regression from Toronto’s reserves, but for the Raptors to stay competitive most of the night thanks to their elite defense. That means taking the under for the full game and the Raptors team total under is the move. The winner of this game may not break the century mark.