Bucks (-2.5) @ Raptors (216)
Pick: Bucks -2.5
One of the things truly elite teams are always good at doing is bouncing back from a loss. In the regular season and playoffs this year Milwaukee is 22-1 off a loss and 19-4 ATS in those 23 games. Now, you might bat an eye at these trends considering the Bucks have lost just one playoff game this year so all the other games took place in the regular season. I too don’t like looking at too much regular season data when handicapping the playoffs, so let’s just look at how Milwaukee responded after its only loss in the first two rounds. The Bucks were throttled at home by Boston in Game 1 of the conference semifinals. Milwaukee then won the won the next four games by an average of more than 16 points and took Game 2 right after the loss by 21 points. In order to win just one game in this series, the Raptors needed the Bucks to shoot 37% from the field, 32% from beyond the arc and miss 11 free throws. Toronto still lost the battle on the boards as the Bucks out-rebounded the Raptors 63-55 and 13-8 on the offensive glass. There have been some questions surrounding Kawhi Leonard’s health going into this game and rightfully so given the load he’s been carrying for the Raptors in the postseason. Kawhi and company are simply outmatched here. I took Milwaukee -2.5 games for the series last week and still feel confident it closes this out in five. The Bucks need as much rest as possible for the NBA Finals given the Warriors now have over a week to get healthy. They’ll shoot higher percentages from the field on Tuesday and win this game by more than two possessions.