Warriors (-3) @ Trail Blazers (219)
Pick: Trail Blazers +3
Pick: Under 219
Maybe this one’s as simple as Golden State is superior and a sweep is imminent. However, if you watched all 48 minutes of the last two games, you would have seen Portland with double-digit leads in the second half of both games. I’ve backed Portland in every game of this series and at least managed to come away with a cover in Game 2. I came in thinking this series would be at least quasi-competitive and had Portland managed to close the door in either Game 2 or Game 3, tonight would have a much different tune. Despite the loss in Game 3, Portland is still 37-11 straight-up in the regular season and playoffs in 2018-19. Only Toronto, Milwaukee and San Antonio have more combined wins at home. This series reminds me a little of the Utah-Houston series in the opening round out West. The Rockets were the clear favorite, though some analysts gave the Jazz a puncher’s chance to at least hang around. That didn’t happen as Houston got up 3-0, but Utah, another team that had one of the best home court advantages in the NBA, had too much pride to roll over and get swept. I feel the same way about the Trail Blazers tonight. We’ll get one last hard-fought effort from them in this series and this time it will be enough to result in a win. The under is also 2-1 in this series and I think there’s some good correlated value with Portland on going under 219. The Trail Blazers are not going to win a shootout against the Warriors, nobody really can even without Kevin Durant, so a Portland win should mean the under cashes as well.