Warriors (+3) @ Rockets (220.5)
Pick: Rockets -3
Do not fall for this trap. The Warriors, a team that’s favored almost every game they play, are a three-point underdog tonight in Houston. Sportsbooks are begging you to take Golden State and the public seems to be obliging with 58% of the tickets on the Warriors plus the points as of this writing. The zig-zag theory has proven profitable early on in the second round and I’m a big proponent of it as the playoffs wear on. We talked about backing teams down 0-1 in Game 2s earlier this week. That’s part of the bigger idea within the zig-zag theory that you want to back teams off of ATS losses expecting them to play better in the next game. We’re expecting more competitive series now and so betting against the result from the previous game makes sense. After last night’s results, teams that did not cover in their previous game in the second round are now 5-2 ATS in the next game. The Rockets did not cover in Game 2 of this series back on Tuesday and had three days to sit on the fact that they could not get the much-needed split in Oakland. Don’t give into the easy temptation to take the title favorite and two-time defending champions getting points. Houston’s winning at least one game in this series and it’s going to be tonight.