Warriors (-10) @ Clippers (232.5)
Pick: Clippers (+10)
Pick: Under (232.5)
How about the fight from Doc Rivers’ team on Wednesday night to get this series back to LA?! After two losses at Staples Center earlier in this series, the Game 2 comeback from the Clippers was looking more and more like an aberration. But, they showed some serious resolve to not only win at Oracle Arena again, but for the second time in the series, take a high-scoring affair. While we weren’t correct in thinking that Game 5 would mirror Game 1, we’re going to take another stab at comparing Friday’s game to a previous game in the series.
Last Sunday’s Game 4 felt like a last stand from the Clippers. They were at home, down 2-1 with a chance to shrink the series to a best-of-three, but a loss would have quelled any hope in the eyes of most NBA fans. This ended up being the best defensive game of the series thus far for the Clips, but Golden State matched that intensity and left Staples Center with a 113-105 win. Improbably, now the series heads back to Staples Center. This game probably looks like that Game 4 and might even be closer than the eight-point margin by which the the Warriors won. The Clippers cannot expect to continue to win shootouts against a team with the offensive firepower of the Warriors. Besides, Golden State is probably pretty frustrated over allowing 129 points at home. The Warriors allowed 135 at home in Game 2 and held the Clippers to 105 in both games in LA after that. Expect positive regression again for Golden State on the defensive end of the floor but don’t expect the Clippers to lay down in what might be their final home game of the season.
The Warriors continue to be a tough team to win money betting on, as even with ramped up motivation in the playoffs, they’re 2-3 ATS in this series and were one of the worst teams against the number in the regular season. Don’t expect a blowout in Game 6, which means take the Clippers plus the points and the game Under the total.