NBA: Greg Frank on tonight’s pivotal Nuggets v Spurs matchup in San Antonio

Nuggets (+3.5) @ Spurs (207.5)
Pick: Spurs -3.5

The San Antonio Spurs are not losing an elimination game at home. All season, Gregg Popovich’s team had been pretty good at bouncing back from losses, but now they’ve laid two straight eggs in this series. In addition to responding well after losses, the Spurs have been a good bet on their home floor covering 58% of their games in San Antonio including the two home playoff games they’ve played already in this series. Only six teams covered at a better clip at home this season than the Spurs. So do you really expect San Antonio to lose back-to-back home games in the playoffs? Going one step further, in a series that looked to be one of the more intriguing opening round matchups, did you really expect either team to win three straight games at any point? Save for the Denver blowout in Game 5, this series has gone as expected with both teams trading blows. Now comes closing time for the Nuggets, a young team which minimal playoff experience as we’ve detailed. Maybe Denver gets it done back in the Mile High City this weekend, but it’s the Spurs’ turn to throw a punch in this series anyway. They’ll land a big one in the first half and win this game by double digits.