Frank’s NBA Western Conference Playoff Preview - Warriors v Clippers, Spurs v Nuggets, Thunder v Trail Blazers, & Rockets v Jazz

Warriors (-15000) in 5 over Clippers
I’m not going to act like there’s a ton to analyze in a series that features the two-time defending champs against a team that was a seller at the trade deadline. The best way to bet this series would probably be derivative bets on the Warriors in the first quarter and first half of their home games early on. They started to ramp up their intensity down the stretch when they needed to ensure themselves the top seed in the West and they’ll probably come out in both of their first two home games and look to bury the Clippers early. I have too much respect for Doc Rivers to go with a sweep here, so I’ll give Los Angeles one game.

Spurs (+235) in 6 over Nuggets
Despite an impressive 113-85 win against San Antonio just nine days ago, Denver did not look like a two seed for most of the final two weeks of the regular season. Besides the blowout win for the Nuggets earlier this month, these two teams played three very close games and the Spurs won two of them. In a series that figures to have a lot of one-possession games, the team with more experience at better than 2-1 odds to win is great value. The Spurs steal one of the first three games in the mile-high city and protect the riverwalk to advance.

Thunder (-165) in 6 over Trail Blazers
It’s an expensive price to lay with a six seed in the first round of the playoffs, but we’re doing it. Rotations get shorter in the postseason which puts a further emphasis on high-end talent in the guts of the game. Oklahoma City has the best two players in this series in Russell Westbrook and Paul George and Steven Adams should be able to capitalize on Jusuf Nurkic’s absence for the Trail Blazers. The Thunder got things together in the regular season just when it looked like they may have to play Golden State in the first round. Instead, they have a much more favorable matchup and will win the series as a result.

Rockets (-310) in 7 over Jazz
Just because I don’t want to be boring and not pick one of the eight opening round series to go seven games, I’ll do it here. Between Donovan Mitchell and Rudy Gobert, there’s enough elite talent on the Utah roster to hang around in this series. It also feels like the whole world is simulating to a Warriors / Rockets second round series. I think we’ll get that, but when everyone is looking ahead to an intriguing series in the round, things usually get complicated in the current round. Quin Snyder has done a great job in Salt Lake City especially the last couple seasons and will get the most out of his team here. That said, the Rockets are too good to lose a game seven at home.