Kings @ Sixers, Bucks @ Heat, Bulls @ Clippers
Kings (+9.5) @ Sixers (231.5)
Pick: Under 231.5
After a collapse in the second half last night in Beantown, the path to the playoffs got even more hazy for Sacramento. The Kings lost 126-120 to the Celtics and dropped below .500 in the process. It was the first game the Kings scored at least 120 points in the month of March. Our guess is the Kings don’t have much gas left in the tank after last night’s barn burner. However, as detailed in our handicap of the last Sixers game against Cleveland, Philly isn’t a team that should be trusted as a double-digit favorite and that’s about where we’re at here. That makes the under the best play on this game. For what it’s worth, Sacramento comes in at 4-7 to the under in its previous 11 second legs of a back-to-back.
Bucks (-5) @ Heat (219.5)
Pick: Heat +5
Heat money came in here driving this number down and we’re in agreement with the line move. These two teams are first and second respectively in opponent field goal percentage in the NBA and with Miami looking to solidify a playoff berth in the East, we’d expect a close game. The Heat have been a streaky team all year and are on one of their good streaks now having won five of six and six of eight while also covering in six of their last eight. It’s hard to find a chink in the Bucks’ armor as Milwaukee holds the top seed in the East with about one month left in the regular season. However, the Bucks have last three of their last four road games and we’re thinking Miami comes out as the more desperate team tonight.
Bulls (+8) @ Clippers (229)
Pick: Over 229
In our video picks last week, we discussed the fact that the Chicago Bulls have been more competitive during the last month. After covering five out of six at the end of February and into March, the Bulls have failed to cover the number in five of their most recent six. So, the sportsbooks have adjusted when it comes to Chicago’s point spreads. However, there’s been consistent value on going over the total in Bulls games during the last month. The Bulls are 7-4-1 to the over in their last 12 which we think is correlated with them playing more competitive games. Chicago had been one of the association’s more offensively challenged teams most of the season and so it being more competitive resulted in more points. As for Los Angeles, prior to Tuesday’s loss to Portland, the Clippers had scored at least 113 points in five straight games. With a couple days off, we like the Clippers to score at least 120 points which gives us good value on the over.