Nets (+5.5) @ ROCKETS (224.5) 8:05 pm
Pick: Rockets -5.5
This line opened at 3.5 and has since been bet up to 5.5 and we think the money is going the right way in this one. The Nets have been one of the NBA’s biggest overachievers in the first half of the season. The playoffs are now the expectation for Brooklyn this season. However, expectations are much higher in Houston. The Rockets are 16-6 at home this season and only the Nuggets and Mavericks have lost fewer home games in the West. The opening number here seemed especially short at 3.5, and while there’s always concerns about not getting the best of the number, we will lay the 5.5 to back Houston. The Rockets are 9-1 in their lost 10 home games and 8-1-1 ATS in those 10. Houston’s average margin of victory in those nine wins is about 13 points. The Rockets got out of the gate slow this season, but have started to look more like a title contender in the last month. For what it’s worth, Brooklyn has alternated win-loss results in its last five games and won its last game. Either way, there’s quite a bit of value on the home team here.