Coming off the tail of an amazing card at UFC 312 in Sydney, we have a solid Fight Night card at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas.
Today, I will break down my 4 favorite bets for this weekend’s fight card. Let’s get into it!
This will be a fun fight between two guys who are a threat to finish the fight at any moment. Bonfim is the younger of the two and has had a very impressive career up to this point. He was undefeated up until a bout where he lost by KO in Nov of 2023. Bonfim also has only 1 win by decision so far in his career. Williams is a classic power fighter with 4 KOs out of his 6 UFC wins. Coming into this fight on a two-fight win streak Williams will look to put a stop to Bonfim's rise in the UFC.
This fight will be determined by Williams' ability to avoid the takedown and submission attempts. Bonfim averages just under 3 takedowns per 15 minutes in his UFC career, but Williams holds a 73% takedown defense in his UFC career. I think Williams is an amazing value pick for this fight, he is the better fighter on his feet and has a great resume defending takedowns, including never being submitted in his career.
MY PICK: Khaos Williams +175
This will be a classic matchup of high-level grapplers. Viera is one of the most decorated BJJ practitioners in recent history. He is a 5x World Champion and 2015 ADCC Champ and now holds a 10-2 MMA record. He has won 9 of his 10 MMA victories by submission, with his one other win coming by TKO. He will be up to a tall task though, as Andre Petroski is a decorated grappler himself and a former D1-Wrestler. Petroski holds a 7-2 UFC record and has won his last 2 fights by dominating the fight from the ground.
I’m very interested to see how this fight goes. Petroski will surly be the better at wrestling and, possibly, could dictate whether the fight takes place on the feet or the ground. However, we have seen Petroski struggle with his gas tank in the past and we know Viera will be looking to take advantage of that. However, whether Petroski looks for takedowns or now, I think he will be able to survive the grappling attack of Viera.
MY PICK: Fight to go the distance +130
I am hoping we get a fun fight out of this one, but there is potential for a pretty quick one. Kattar has been a top-tier talent in the Featherweight division for years, but has never been able to clear the top talent. He has lost 4 of his last 5 fights with 3 of them winning Fight of the Night. Kattar is always down for a scrap but is going to make this tough. Since losing 3 straight fights in 2020-2021, including a decision loss to current champ Ilia Topuria, Zalal has won 6 straight and finished all of his opponents. He has 4 straight submission victories and 9 total in his career.
This fight has the potential to be a banger, but Kattar will need to show some very improved takedown defense. However, Kattar has shown many times he can compete with the best fighters in the division. Zalal has only faced one high-level opponent in Topuria back in 2020. I think Kattar is an amazing bargain in this one.
MY PICK: Calvin Kattar +380
I have given you a ton of plus-money picks tonight, and this is the opposite. But stay with me. Rodrigues is an absolute killer coming into this fight winning 5 of his last 6 fights, 4 of which came by KO. He now takes on former title contender Jared Cannonier, who in his prime was an animal, but he seems to be slightly past that point. He is now 40 years old and has gone 2-2, with 2 straight losses, after dropping his title fight to Israel Adesanya.
I have always been a believer in Cannonier, but this is a brutal matchup for him. Rodrigues is a mauler and has the ability to KO you at any point. I think Cannonier has for more experience in high-level fights, but I think his age may have caught up to him, especially after the war he had with Caio Borralho in August 2024. Give me Rodrigues at any number.
MY PICK: Gregory Rodrigues -230