UCF 307 kicks off this Saturday, with the main card starting at 7:00 PM PT in Salt Lake City. This card is full of top-tier talent in the main event and across the undercard! With Alex Pereira defending his belt from Rountree, this might not have been the fight we expected, but with Rountree's knockout power, anything can happen.
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Alex Pereira is the clear favorite in this fight against Khalil Rountree Jr., and for good reason. Rountree didn't exactly fight his way to the top contender spot. He's here because the UFC wanted to get Pereira back in the spotlight before the Francis Ngannou hype takes over with his PFL debut. While Rountree has serious knockout power, this is a showcase for Pereira.
Pereira has been an absolute wrecking machine at LHW, with gigantic wins over Jan Blachowicz and Jiri Prochazka. He is one of the best knockout artists in the UFC, and coming up against Rountree, who has been hot and cold, it's hard to see Pereira losing. Rountree has that "one punch KO" ability, but experience and precision make Pereira a considerable challenge.
The only real weakness for Pereira is his grappling, but Rountree isn't known for takedowns or submissions, so likely this will be a standing fight. That plays right into Pereira's hands. Rountree might have a shot if he lands something big, but Pereira's accuracy and power should get the job done.
The hate between Raquel Pennington and Julianna Pena is well-known, but that doesn’t make it likely to amp up this fight. This will be a slow, feel-it-out match, as these two aren’t known for explosive bouts. It's a reason why Pennington is the favorite: solid defensively, she has a way of grinding out decisions.
Pennington's game plan will likely be to stuff Pena's slow takedowns and pick her apart with safe, low-risk boxing. It might not be thrilling, but it is effective: 11 of Pennington's 13 UFC wins have come via decision. While Pena has more finishes on her record—including her famous submission of Amanda Nunes—this fight seems destined to go the distance.
If you're looking to bet, the clever play is wagering on the fight going to a decision, which feels just about a guarantee. If you want both lines are sitting above +100, so if you’re feeling confident, just toss even money on both fighters winning by decision.
Jose Aldo was solid last time out, dominating Jonathan Martinez, but there are some questions if Martinez was simply overwhelmed by the moment. Mario Bautista is a solid grappler, but Aldo's legendary 91% takedown defense, which has even held up against Merab Dvalishvili, gives him a leg up. Bautista may attempt to take Aldo down, but if Aldo can keep the fight standing, his superior striking should carry him to a decision win. Smart money here is on Aldo.
The question was only whether Kayla Harrison could make 135 lbs, which she did easily, dominating Holly Holm in her UFC debut. She's just on another level when it comes to wrestling. Vieira's takedown defense is excellent at 92%, but it likely won't hold up to Harrison's pressure. Vieira might survive to a decision with her BJJ skills, but Harrison will control the fight. Our money is on Vieira on this one.
Roman Dolidze came into his last fight flat but has the skill set to test the wrestling weakness of Kevin Holland. Kevin Holland is fresh off of a fantastic submission win but has shown struggles against fighters who could work a solid takedown game. If Dolidze can commit to wrestling, he should have a good chance at winning or keeping close. The reach advantage for Holland may make things tough, but Dolidze could edge it out. We think Dolidze will take this one in decision.