UFC returns back to Vegas this weekend for what is a very good card in my opinion. We have some good stylistic matchups, some heavy favorites, and a couple live dogs to keep an eye on.
I like almost everything in this fight for Johns, other than his stamina/cardio. He lands 3.28 significant strikes per min, while allowing just 2.55 with good striking accuracy and defense(68%). He also averages over 1 takedown per fight with an 85% grappling defense.
Johns is a good wrestler who is the quicker and more powerful fighter here. He has multiple paths to victory via his hands or on the mat and I like backing those positions.
I do believe this fight is going to push into the later rounds, banking on Johns to have his cardio ready vs a very tough and experienced opponent.
Tatsuro Taira is one of the best prospects in this division sitting at 15-0 with 12 finishes. He averages over 2 takedowns per fight, and I see him attacking that angle all night to wear on Perez. He lands 3.51 significant strikes per minute while only allowing 1.15, so he knows how to avoid the damage, which is where Alex Perez is dangerous.
Taira is going to shoot multiple times, as Perez has 82% takedown defense and it may take him a few tries to get him down. He will need to be strategic in his approach to get it to the ground and avoid the boxing exchanges vs a better striker in Perez.
Nate Maness is going to run through Jimmy Flick with multiple ways to damage him. Maness has good power, can wrestle and submit you, and is absolutely the more skilled fighter here. Flick will try some takedowns, but Maness has a 78% takedown defense.
Manness will need to watch out for Flick's submissions, which he can find, but he is going to get beat up in this fight. I would not be shocked if Maness KO him before the 3rd round. Always tough to take a KO prop so I am pairing these two in a 2-leg parlay.
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Tagir Ulanbekov (15-2) vs Joshua Van (10-1) may just be the fight of the night, so I am hopeful we are on the right side here and I think we will be. Tagir can be a dominant grappler on the offensive side, catching almost 4 takedowns per fight, and hitting almost 50%. He is going to have to time his takedowns on Van, use his jab to find his angles and avoid the striking of Van.
Van is slick and skilled and I really like him, but he is very young. I believe there are levels to this game where Tagir is a little ahead right now. Van is an excellent striker, but can grapple and wrestle when needed.
Van has all the skills in the bag to be very good and has a very high output. We know grapplers like to get it to the ground to avoid the striking damage, and I believe Tagir is going to have too much ground and cage control in this fight, while avoiding enough damage.
Brady Hiestand (8-2) vs Garrett Armfield (10-3) has an over-rounds play written all over it. Hiestand has gone o1.5 rounds in all 3 of his UFC fights, where Armfield has only made it over in 1 of 3. What is intriguing about this is Armfield's forward pressure with his striking of over 6 significant strikes per minute, vs Hiestsands over 4 takedown average per fight.
Stylistically, I see Armfield winning this, but it is going to take him into the later rounds to find a finish or take it a decision, with enough damage from striking. Hiestand more likely will find a takedown or two, and he may be able to control the time to push this later for us. I always like to find guys who are absolute dogs, who fight through adversity and bad positions and that is what Hiestand offers here.
Let’s have another good event!
Best Bets:
Miles Johns ML (-125) Bet365
Parlay: Tatsuro Taira ML + Nate Maness ML (-118) MGM
Parlay: Tagir Ulanbekov ML + Hiestand o1.5 Rounds (-114) DraftKings/Bet365