UFC Fans, Fight Night will be at the KFC YUM! Center in Louisville Kentucky Saturday night and though the card may not be full of big names, we should still see some fireworks!!
I really like Ludovit Klein in this matchup. He is an excellent striker who is very fast, uses his kicks well, and brings his strikes with authority. Something Thiago Moises does not like is getting hit.
With Klein’s striking accuracy of 55% and landing almost 4 strikes per minute, I expect him to put enough punishment on Moises to find the knockout early or outgrit Moises over 3 rounds.
Moises will look to submit and he is dangerous, especially at plus money, but with his takedown accuracy of 44% vs Klein's takedown defense of 88%, I believe Klein will be able to keep Moises off the ground unless he needs to wrestle for his offense. He looked great in his last fight and I look forward to him following that up Saturday night.
Brunno Ferreira has been on a tear in his MMA career with all 12 fights ending in a finish, him winning 11 of them and 8 by (T)KO. He is 2-1 in the UFC, coming off a win vs Phil Hawes.
He has incredible power as a striker, landing 5 strikes per minute, and coming at you with an arsenal of attacks. He likes to pick his spots when he attacks and can be dangerous when he connects. If he does connect, Stoltzfus will be in trouble.
I expect Stoltzfus to attempt takedowns to avoid the pressure and push this into later rounds to see if he can drag Ferreira into deep waters. If Ferreira can get ground control and ground and pound, his power may be too much for Stoltzfus. I believe he has too many paths to victory where he could catch Dustin by submission, where he has 2 losses in his career.
I am taking a chance and backing Rosas Jr and I hope he has his cardio up to snuff. I expect Rosas to take this to the ground, and often. Rosas averages almost 4 takedowns per fight and is relentless in doing so.
In his 8-1 career, he is 5-0 in submissions, and no doubt he will be going for that vs Ricky Turcios, who just allowed 7 takedowns on him in his last fight vs Natividad, and has a 45% takedown defense.
I do like this fight to last a little bit as Ricky is a dog, is relentless, and he will test Rosas in different positions. I believe Rosas is the superior grappler and he will find his way to control time in this fight while doing enough damage throughout the fight.
Charlie Radtke is as tough as they come and he has a great challenge this week facing Carlos Prates, who will be the much bigger and longer fighter. Both are undefeated in the UFC, in limited action, so something has to give.
Prates is dangerous with his length and knockout power, but I am leaning toward Radtke, his wrestling, his toughness, and his fight IQ to help him get this upset done.
Prates is dangerous with 7 straight (T)KO's, but he faces an athletic, competent grappler, who is going to get inside, avoid the big shot, and get this to the ground where he can control Carlos and put some damage while searching for a submission.
He has to avoid the big shot, and I believe with his success on the ground, and Prates using distance control looking for that shot, this fight has a chance to go the distance. If Radtke can control and do enough damage on the ground he can keep the scorecards close.
My Best Bets:
Klein ML (-135) MGM
Ferreira + Rosas Jr (-108) FD
Radtke +3.5 (+120) DK