What's good, MLB fans? I hope your Thursday treated you better than mine did. We had a so-so night, as our picks went 2-2. Our lone MLB total was a winner on the Under in the Phillies vs Dodgers game. However, our NFL player props stumbled to a 1-2 mark.
Our MLB player props have caught fire since the playoffs started, as they're 12-5 through the last 17 plays. Let's see if we can keep that mojo rolling in tonight's deciding Game 5 between the Tigers and the Mariners. Best of luck, sports betting family.
Oddsmakers are making the Tigers a moderate favorite in this matchup, as the opening line priced the team from the Motor City as a -134 favorite on the highway. The number is now sitting at -135 to -145, which makes sense because the reigning AL Cy Young award winner will be on the hill for Detroit.
Judging by the run total, sportsbooks are expecting a low amount of scoring in this one. The number opened at 5.5 runs, and most shops are still dealing that number. However, a few spots (Bet365, DraftKings, Caesars) are offering 6 with the juice on the Over at +100.
Tarik Skubal will undoubtedly become the first pitcher to win back-to-back Cy Young awards since Pedro Martinez in 1997-98. The Tigers' southpaw is almost unhittable when he's on, and the M's have had a tough time against him as a whole.
Seattle has an expected batting average of just .209 against Skubal through 146 plate appearances. The Mariners rank 6th in WRC+ against lefties this season, but Skubal isn't exactly your ordinary southpaw. However, Jorge Polanco has taken Skubal deep three times in only 29 at-bats.
I was tempted to bet Skubal's Over Ks, but my projection calls for 9.5 strikeouts, and that's where most sportsbooks are pricing it. There are a few 8.5s in the market, but I'm not too crazy about laying -145 or higher on a player prop.
The Mariners have got to be kicking themselves for not closing out this series in Game 4. They took a 3-zip lead into the 5th before Bryce Miller and the bullpen started getting lit up. It'll be interesting to see if Seattle can take back the momentum tonight at home.
Seattle is led offensively by soon-to-be American League MVP Cal Raleigh, who just had arguably the greatest ever season by a catcher. "The Big Dumper" is always a threat to go deep, but he's hitting just .167 against Skubal.
The M's bullpen will have to regroup after its rough outing back on Wednesday. The arms they got at the trade deadline have paid off so far, but they'll need to pitch better once George Kirby is out of the game. Speaking of Kirby...
I love this line we're getting on Kirby tonight from Fanatics. DK and FanDuel have this in the -136 to -140 range, and that's closer to where I think it should be. My projection actually calls for Kirby to get 6.35 Ks tonight, so we can pull the trigger with confidence in this deciding Game 5 of the ALDS.
Kirby's median this season was just 5 Ks, but that has to be adjusted upwards because of his stellar strikeout numbers against Detroit. The Tigers have fanned 32.4% of the time in 108 career plate appearances against the M's righty. They struck out 8 times against him in Game 1, and I could see a similar result tonight for the Tigers on the highway.
Detroit has been striking out all year long at a high clip against righties. They had the 3rd highest K-rate in MLB against right-handers. High swing and miss guys like Riley Greene, Javy Baez, and Spencer Torkelson should help Kirby cash this ticket for us. Let's start the weekend with a W! Good luck, family!
Game Prediction: Tigers 4 - Mariners 3