Happy Thursday, fellow sports betting folks! Hump Day was rough for us on the MLB side of things. We went 0-2-1 to run our record to 104-99 on the season. Our strikeout prop parlays went 0-2, and our best bet on the Yankees vs. Royals Under resulted in a frustrating push because of a bullpen meltdown.
Oh well, it's time to shake it off and move on. Mama said there'd be days like this, and she wasn't wrong. Let's get right on Thursday with two game totals and a strikeout props parlay. Enjoy!
SF at COL - 3:10 PM EDT and DET at BAL - 6:35 PM EDT
Robbie Ray surprisingly let us down last night against this Colorado lineup, which hasn't been striking out as much over the last 14 days. Call me stubborn, but I'm going to try again today with Hayden Birdsong. The young righty doesn't work deep into games, but he has the stuff to get at least 5 Ks in this one.
Birdsong hits 96 mph with his fastball, and the Rockies rank just 28th against the four-seamer this season. The 23-year-old also has a nasty slider, and Colorado ranks dead last against that tricky pitch. Five Colorado hitters whiff more than 26% of the time, so let's play the Over on Birdsong.
Skubal's price is sky high, but I couldn't resist adding him at 6+ to bring down this juice to a respectable level. The flame-throwing southpaw has been the best pitcher in baseball for the better part of three years now. He shouldn't have any trouble finding us 6 punchouts against an O's lineup that has scuffled against lefties all season long.
WSH at NYM - 1:10 PM EDT
I'll take a scary lunchtime Under for $100, Alex! Call me crazy, but I've liked what I've seen so far from Michael Soroka. He was dogged by injuries for most of his tenure in Atlanta, but it looks like the move to Washington has done him some good. Through 7 starts this season, Soroka has an expected ERA of just 2.99.
Kodai Senga has been awfully good for the Mets this season, and I don't see that changing against a subpar Nats team. Washington ranks just 20th in WRC+ against righties, so Senga should be able to work fairly deep in this one. The 32-year-old is 6-3 with a tiny ERA of 1.59.
My only concern with this wager is the lackluster Nationals bullpen. Even still, I think the Under is the only way to play this one, especially if both starting pitchers show up today. Let's ride!
DET at BAL - 6:35 PM EDT
This Under is also scary, but only because of Dean Kremer. The Baltimore right-hander does a good job of limiting hard contact and walks, but his stuff isn't all that great. My hope is that he can get through 5 innings against this very dangerous Detroit offense.
On the flip side, I don't see how Baltimore's offense will be able to get anything going against Tarik Skubal. The Orioles have looked like a Minor League club when facing lefties this season, and Skubal's stuff is second to none. Baltimore ranks just 29th this season in WRC+ against southpaws.
Both of these squads also have above-average bullpens, so that's a nice bonus for our Under play. Baltimore ranks 11th in reliever xFIP, while Detroit is also pretty solid, clocking in at 14th. Give me another Under.