The Philadelphia Phillies are off to a solid 19-15 start in 2025, which is only good enough to put them in 2nd place in the crowded NL East division. Even with the average start, Philly is still three games behind the Mets for the division lead.
The Tampa Bay Rays are off to a subpar 16-18 start to the season, which currently puts them in a tie with the Blue Jays for 3rd place in the AL East behind the Yankees and Red Sox. As usual, the Rays are outperforming expectations thanks to homegrown talent.
Which team has the edge in this series? I'll give out some thoughts below before giving out a best bet to give us some nice MLB action for this week. Best of luck, my friends!
I'm going to give the clear edge to Philly in the starting pitching category in this series. The three guys that the Phillies are starting all are legitimate aces. The Rays have some solid guys going as well, but they aren't nearly as tough as the Phillies' starters.
Zack Wheeler will be on the mound for Philly in Game 1, and he's been his usual dominant self so far this year. The big righty has a K-rate of 32.8% and a walk rate of just 5.2%. He also has an expected batting average against of just .199, so the Rays hitters could have a difficult time getting to him on Tuesday evening.
Tampa Bay will counter with Drew Rasmussen in Game 1 against Philly. The 29-year-old has looked fantastic so far after an injury-shortened 2024 campaign. Rasmussen has the uncanny ability to throw all five of his pitches at any time for strikes.
Game 2 looks like a huge edge for Philadelphia, as I rate Cristopher Sanchez as the 12th-best pitcher in the game this season. The 28-year-old lefty has quietly established himself as one of the best southpaws in the game today. Tampa will counter with Shane Baz, who has looked very good. However, I still have Baz several notches below Sanchez in my starting pitcher power ratings.
Game 3 pits Jesus Luzardo against Ryan Pepiot in a battle of two solid starters. Still, though, I'd prefer Luzardo over Pepiot in that one. Tampa Bay really struggles against lefties, so that should give Philly a distinct advantage in the starting pitcher department.
Neither team has been elite at the dish to start 2025. However, it's perfectly normal for teams to take a while to get comfortable on offense in the colder months of the season. I'm betting that both of these teams will improve at the plate as the weather gets better as we head toward summer.
I actually favor the Rays' offense in Game 1 of this series, mainly because they rank 7th in WRC+ against righties. The problem is they'll only face one starting righty the entire series, and it happens to be a beast like Zack Wheeler.
Philly should dominate with their offense in Games 2 and 3 of the series. They rank 13th against righties, which isn't elite. However, it's light years better than Tampa Bay hits lefties (26th in WRC+).
PHI at TB - 7:05 PM EDT (Tue), 7:05 PM EDT (Wed), 7:05 PM EDT (Thu)
This price implies that the Phillies are just a smidge better than the Rays. I don't agree with that, as my power ratings put Philadelphia as the 6th-best team in baseball and Tampa Bay as the 16th-best team.
The Phillies should have the edge with all three of their starters and their offense. I'm not too crazy about either bullpen, as they both rate out as just mediocre in K minus BB rate. Philadelphia has some talented arms in relief, but they've been inconsistent so far.
Tampa Bay could get Game 1 at home, but I have Philadelphia as a sizable favorite in Games 2 and 3 with Sanchez and Luzardo on the hill, respectively. Give me the Phils to win at least two of three against the Rays.