Happy Tuesday, fellow sports investors! Monday was tough for us on the MLB side of things. We went 0-1, running our record to 52-52 on the young season for a deficit of 9.26 units. That was not the way I wanted to start the new week after a profitable showing last week.
The soggy weather really hurt our Over play on Nick Pivetta last night. There were torrential downpours over Yankee Stadium, and that made it hard for Pivetta to get a good grip on his curveball. We ended up losing by the hook after a 28-minute rain delay.
Overall, though, the K props have done well this season at 35-26 (+4.6), but everything else has brought down our record. Let's shake it off and move on with 3 more strikeout props for Tuesday, May 6. Best of luck, my friends!
TEX at BOS - 6:45 PM EDT
Eovaldi has impressed the living heck out of me so far this season. I thought the 35-year-old's career would be winding down by now, but he's proven me wrong with a K-rate of 28.2% (81st percentile). His chase rate and whiff rate are also almost in the top quartile in MLB.
Pitching at Fenway Park is always a tough ask for any pitcher, but I think Eovaldi can baffle this Red Sox lineup. He's been using both his splitter and his curve to generate lots of swings and misses.
Just how good is this matchup for Eovaldi? Five Boston hitters strike out over 22.6% of the time. Look for Eovaldi to dominate for most of the evening on his way to at least 6 Ks.
SD at NYY - 7:40 PM EDT
The weather report looks much better tonight in New York, so we'll roll with another Padres ace to go over his strikeout number. I love that most of this Yankees lineup has never even faced King. They could be in for a rude awakening, especially against his sinker and sweeper.
King has been in the big leagues for 7 seasons, but he's just now coming into his own on the mound. The 29-year-old has an outstanding K-rate of 29.5% this season, and his whiff rate is also impressive thanks to his allotment of 5 above-average pitches.
If you want to play the Over 6.5 for some plus money, I wouldn't hate you for it. However, I'm going to roll with the alt line for a little extra insurance and hope that King can keep the mighty New York bats at bay.
NYM at AZ - 9:40 PM EDT
All of this juice kind of bothers me, but this number is at least a full strikeout too high by my estimation. Peterson's median number of Ks was 4 last season, and he draws an awfully tough matchup against Arizona tonight on the road.
The D'Backs put the ball in play incredibly well against lefties, as they lead MLB in contact rate against them. Arizona has four hitters with K-rates below 17.3%, which tells me that Peterson may not get many strikeout opportunities tonight.
Peterson's chase rate is a bit concerning, but I love that his whiff rate ranks in just the 13th percentile. That's enough for me to drink the juice and play the Under in this spot. Stay thirsty, my friends!