It's finally Friday, MLB fans! We need a bounce-back in the worst possible way after an awful Thursday. We went 0-4, running our record to 48-50 on the young season for a deficit of 10.7 units. It was our first reverse sweep of the season on player props, and it was incredibly painful.
We lost a couple of plays by the hook, and the other two plays were just plain bad reads. I'm not sure what's going on this season, but we just can't seem to build any lasting momentum. Now y'all know why I stress betting just 1% or 2% of your bankroll per play.
The strikeout props have done well this season at 31-24 (+3.16), but everything else has been a struggle. Let's bounce back strong with 5 more strikeout props for Friday, May 2. Best of luck, my friends!
SD at PIT - 6:40 PM EDT
Keller still has a great curveball and an above-average slider, but the rest of his pitches are pretty mediocre. His fastball only tops out at around 93 mph, and his K-rate has plummeted because of it.
The 29-year-old has only struck out 17.4% of the batters he's faced this season, which puts him in just the 19th percentile. His whiff rate is even worse, as it's in the 10th percentile. Keller's expected ERA of 5.29 is also concerning.
Keller has also had a hard time generating Ks against this San Diego roster. His lifetime K-rate against the Pads is just 14.8%, and he'll be facing a lineup that has five hitters who fan less than 18.6% of the time. Give me the Under!
AZ at PHI - 6:45 PM EDT
I like Merrill Kelly, but I'm not sure that he's all the way healthy after an injury-riddled 2024 season. The veteran righty's K-rate is just 18.5% so far in 2025, and his sinker and cutter don't have their usual bite like in years past. His fastball is also less than impressive at only 91.8 mph.
The Phillies let us down last night in the K department against Brad Lord, but I look for them to knock Kelly out of this game pretty early. They should have 6 hitters in the lineup that strike out less than 19.8% of the time.
Kelly's median K number was 5 a year ago, but I bumped that down to 3.5 because of his poor current form and the tough matchup that Philly represents. Give me another Under!
TB at NYY - 7:05 PM EDT
I've been a big fan of Pepiot's for quite a while, and I love riding him against free-swinging teams. That's exactly what we have here in the Yankees, who have tons of power but often strike out frequently.
Pepiot's K-rate is just slightly above-average this season (23.1%), but he's been getting a lot of chase with his slider. Look for him to use that early and often against K-prone hitters like Jasson Dominguez and Jazz Chisholm.
Pepiot's median K number was 5 in 2024, but I made an adjustment to 6.5 because of how much the Yanks strike out. Give me our first Over to make our Friday a little more fun.
MIN at BOS - 7:10 PM EDT
I don't hate the Over 6.5 for +122 over at FanDuel right now, but I'm trying to show more restraint on these mega-plus Overs. Ryan gives up more longballs than I would like, but his stuff is still pretty stellar.
Ryan, a 28-year-old righty, has a K-rate of 29.1% that puts him in the 83rd percentile. That's pretty impressive for a guy who doesn't throw overly hard. He gets most of his whiffs with his sweeper and his splitter.
Boston has been making contact more often lately, but I could see them struggling against Ryan's breaking pitches tonight at home. Four Red Sox hitters strike out at least 25% of the time, so Ryan should get us to the payout window on this alternate line.
DET at LAA - 9:38 PM EDT
Skubal has looked more like his Cy Young winner self lately after a slow start to 2025. The terrifying young lefty is almost unhittable when he's locating his breaking pitches. Skubal gets a terrific matchup against the Angels this evening.
After starting out the year hot, the Halos have come crashing back down to earth in the worst kind of way. LAA has the 2nd-highest K-rate in baseball against southpaws, so Skubal should dominate in this late-night affair.
I love that Skubal has a lifetime K-rate of 26.5% against this Angels team. I also love that LAA has 5 hitters who fan at least 27% of the time. This one will be sweaty, but Skubal will come through for us. Have a blessed weekend, everybody.