Happy Thursday, MLB lovers! Hump Day was kind to us on the diamond. We went 4-1, running our record to 48-46 on the young season for a deficit of 5.5 units. It was a nice way to end a pretty frustrating April.
As you probably expected, our only loss was by the dreaded hook on Emerson Hancock of the Mariners. However, we did end up winning a couple of other plays by the hook, so let's just be thankful.
The strikeout props have done well this season at 31-20 (+8.41), but everything else has sucked. Let's build on yesterday's success with 4 more strikeout props for Thursday, May 1st. Best of luck, my friends!
AZ at NYM - 1:10 PM EDT
Gallen has gotten off to a rocky start this season, and he could struggle mightily against this Mets lineup. The 29-year-old righty still has a good K-rate because of his curveball. However, Gallen's walk rate of 10.5% is more than a bit concerning.
The Metropolitans have the 5th-lowest strikeout rate in baseball against righties, and they've been pretty hot at the plate (with the exception of last night's rough performance against Corbin Burnes).
Gallen has a career K-rate of just 21.9% against this Mets roster, and he'll likely face 6 hitters who strike out less than 19.6% of the time. This one's scary, but I'll roll with the Under to kick off the Thursday card.
MIL at CWS - 2:10 PM EDT
The Brew Crew helped get us to the cash-out window last night by putting the ball in play frequently, and I think they'll do the same this afternoon in the Windy City.
I don't see Milwaukee having much trouble against Burke, who has a K-rate of just 16% this season and an expected batting average allowed of .311. Burke draws a tough matchup, at least strikeout-wise, against Milwaukee today.
The Beermakers have the 6th-lowest K-rate in baseball against righties. Five Brewers hitters fan less than 20.2% of the time. Give me another Under for some mid-afternoon action.
WSH at PHI - 6:45 PM EDT
I generally steer away from the 3.5 strikeouts number when betting pitcher props because it doesn't leave much room for error. That being said, I'm breaking my rule tonight because this is a great spot to fade Brad Lord.
Lord is a pitch-to-contact type of guy who relies more on ground balls than strikeouts. That should equal a low number of Ks against a Phillies lineup that should have 6 hitters with strikeout rates below 20.1%.
Lord has a slider and a sinker, but his chase rate is the worst in baseball. Beam me up with another Under, Scotty!
BOS at TOR - 7:07 PM EDT
This one's a bit juicy, especially since the books are expecting Houck to possibly work 6 innings tonight in Oh, Canada. Keep in mind, though, that Houck is 0-2 this season with a terrible 7.58 ERA. That number points to an outing that could be on the short side tonight.
Houck has a decent fastball, but he only throws it around 7% of the time. He relies on a sweeper and a sinker to induce ground balls. Because of that, I made this line 3.5 instead of 4.5.
It also helps that the Blue Jays have the 2nd-lowest K-rate in MLB against righties. Let's cash another Under to close out the Thursday card. Vamos!