Happy Friday, fellow sports investors! Thursday was a so-so kind of day for us on the MLB side of things. We went 1-1, running our record to 40-39 on the young season for a deficit of 4.84 units. Things have been frustrating lately, but the tide will turn soon.
We got a nice early win with Bryan Woo, who looked dominant by striking out 8 Red Sox hitters to easily cash our Over ticket. Unfortunately, our first 5 bet on the Nationals went down in flames. We just needed two more outs for a W, but James Wood decided NOT to hit the freaking cut-off man.
The K props have done well this season at 23-14 (+7.28), but everything else has been riding the struggle bus. Let's shake it off and move on with 3 more strikeout props for Friday, April 25th. Best of luck, my friends!
TOR at NYY - 7:05 PM EDT
Berrios has had a slow start to 2025, so I think we're getting a nice discount on his strikeouts line. The veteran righty isn't getting as much movement on some of his pitches, but he's still the ace of this Blue Jays staff.
My numbers project at least six strikeouts for Berrios against this free-swinging Yankees squad. The Boys in Pinstripes have five hitters with K-rates above 24%, so Berrios should have plenty of strikeout opportunities.
Lastly, I like that Berrios fared well against the Yanks last season. In two starts against NYY, he racked up 8 and 6 Ks, respectively. Let's 'buy the dip' on Berrios. Give me the Over!
LAA at MIN - 7:40 PM EDT
This 6.5 number looks like a tall order on the surface but hang with me before writing me off as a total MLB moron. Lopez had a median K number of 6 in 2024, so asking him to get 7 isn't that big of a stretch.
Lopez is still getting a ton of chase with his sweeper, and I could see a few of these Angels hitters swinging at it even if it's way off the plate. LAA has the 2nd-highest K-rate this season against righties, so the matchup is perfect for a guy like Lopez.
The Angels have 5 everyday players who strike out at least 28% of the time. According to his outs line, Lopez is only expected to work 5 innings tonight. Even still, that should be more than enough work for him to get 7 Ks.
ATL at AZ - 9:40 PM EDT
Gallen has been getting lit up like a Christmas tree to start 2025, but his breaking stuff has still been pretty sharp. His ERA may be bloated at 5.60, but his whiff rate still ranks in the 81st percentile among MLB pitchers.
The veteran righty was rocked against the Cubs last weekend and now has to face a Braves team that's been heating up lately. That being said, Atlanta still swings and misses a ton. The Braves have the 5th-highest K-rate in baseball against right-handers.
Gallen's median was 6 last season, and I adjusted that up to 6.5 because of some of Atlanta's K-prone hitters. I also like that Gallen's outs line is sitting at 17.5 with some juice on the Over. Give me another Over to put a bow on the Friday card.