Welcome to the Thursday slate, MLB fans and bettors. There are plenty of intriguing matchups on the board, and lots of folks are fixated on Milwaukee vs. San Fran and Seattle vs. Boston.
While those will probably turn out to be exciting games, I've found some nice betting value on the Orioles vs. Nationals tilt at 6:45 PM Eastern Time. Let's take a closer look at the starting pitchers and lineups before giving out our best bet for April 24th. Best of luck, compadres.
Oddsmakers are favoring Washington by just a tad in this matchup, as the opening line priced the Nationals as a -110 favorite at home in Fenway Park. A little bit of money has shown up for the Orioles, so the price now sits in the -107 to -109 range in favor of the Nats.
Judging by the run total, sportsbooks are expecting a low-scoring affair Today in our nation's capital. The number opened at 8.5 runs, and most shops are juicing the Over. The low number makes plenty of sense because MacKenzie Gore has been lights out lately.
Speaking of MacKenzie Gore, no one has been better at striking out hitters this season. The 26-year-old lefty has a K-rate of 37.8%, which puts him in the 97th percentile in baseball. Gore hits 95 on the gun, but his curveball is his most dangerous pitch.
Just how good has Gore been? He's racked up 13 Ks on two separate occasions already this year. That's insane when you consider that he's only had five starts. His command is so much better than last season.
The Orioles will counter with a lefty of their own in Cade Povich. The 25-year-old has had a rocky start to 2025, as his ERA is a sizable 6.38 so far. Povich only throws around 92 mph, so he has to rely on getting ground balls instead of strikeouts.
Both of these offenses have looked lost at the plate against lefties this season. The Nationals rank 24th in WRC+ against lefties. However, I expect those numbers to improve with youngsters like James Wood and Dylan Crews getting more comfortable as the season goes on.
I don't know what in the world is going on with Baltimore. They've been excellent against right-handers but awful against lefties. The O's rank dead last in WRC+ against southpaws, so it could be a long night for them at the dish.
BAL at WSH - 6:45 PM EDT
I'm not going to outsmart myself with this wager. The Orioles are the better overall team, but I just can't pass up this nice price with Gore and the Nats in the first 5 innings. He's shown no signs of slowing down, and I'm expecting another big outing from him at home in this rivalry game.
Povich, on the other hand, has been getting rocked all year long. Even though the Nats don't fare well against lefties, I think they'll do enough damage against this below-average starter. Give me the Nats in the first 5. Let's go!