Happy Wednesday, my sports betting friends! Tuesday was bloody for us on the MLB side of things. We went 1-4, running our record to 37-37 on the young season for a deficit of 6.87 units. Losing by the hook on 3 strikeout props was especially painful.
Tanner Bibee and Mitchell Parker both came one strike away from cashing Overs for us, but it just wasn't meant to be. This time last week, we were up almost 5 units. The swings in this business can be tough to deal with, so it's very important to bet conservatively. Let's get on the bounce-back trail with 3 more K props for Wednesday, April 23rd.
STL at ATL - 12:15 PM EDT
The Cards' offense exploded for 10 runs last night to take down the Braves, and I expect them to stay hot against Bryce Elder today. Elder is a pitch-to-contact type of guy who rarely racks up a lot of strikeouts. The 25-year-old's K-rate ranks in just the 14th percentile this season.
The Cardinals have 4 hitters with K-rates below 15.8%. So, we have a groundball pitcher facing a St. Louis offense that puts the ball in play at a high rate. That sounds like the perfect recipe for an Under.
Elder's median in 2024 was 4, so I was a bit surprised to see the books hang a 4.5 instead of a 3.5. I'm thinking the books are maybe overreacting to Elder's good performance against the Cardinals last year. Let's play the Under.
CIN at MIA - 1:10 PM EDT
Why in the world is this line only 5.5 and not 6.5? The Marlins strike out a ton against righties, and Singer is off to a fantastic start in 2025. The 28-year-old has generated a lot more whiff with his slider and his sinker since coming over to the Reds.
Singer's strikeout median was 5 in 2024, so there isn't a lot of value on the surface. However, I made this line 6.5 instead of 5.5 because the Fish have the 3rd highest K-rate in baseball this season against righties.
The Reds desperately need a win today after dropping the first two games to the Marlins. Their bullpen hasn't looked all that great lately, so look for them to give Singer a long leash today on the road. Let's play the Over!
SD at DET - 1:10 PM EDT
I've always been a big Reese Olson fan, but he doesn't rack up many Ks that often. His K-rate of 20.2% is well below league average, and he's struggled with his command at times through his 4 starts. I could see this tough Padres lineup giving Olson some problems today.
Speaking of the San Diego offense, they do a great job of making solid contact. The Pads have 5 everyday players with K-rates below 20%. The injury to Luis Arraez hurts this club, but they've still got plenty of good hitters.
Olson's median was 4 last season, but I adjusted that down to 3.5 because of the Padres' lineup and the fact that Olson has been struggling of late. Give me another Under to wrap up the Hump Day card. Vamos!