The Cincinnati Reds are off to an 11-11 start in 2025, which is only good enough to put them in 3rd place in the fierce NL Central division. Even with the average start, Cincy is still just two games behind the Cubs for the division lead, and their bats have come to life of late.
The Miami Marlins are off to a nice 9-12 start to the season, which currently puts them in 3rd place in the NL East behind the Mets and Phillies. The Marlins' starting rotation is rounding into better form, but their bullpen remains a serious question mark.
Which team has the edge in this series? I'll give out some thoughts below before giving out a best bet to give us some nice MLB action for the first part of this new week. Best of luck, my friends!
It's tough to determine which team has the edge in the starting pitcher department in this series. Yes, you read that right. The Marlins are no longer filling their rotation with a bunch of scrubs.
Max Meyer gets the ball in Game 1 for the Fish, and he's getting more comfortable as a big-league starter. The 26-year-old righty has an impressive K-rate of 27.6% so far this year. He's also done a good job of keeping the ball on the ground.
Cincy will counter with big Nick Lodolo in Game 1 against Miami. The lanky lefty isn't striking out as many hitters this year, but his command looks to be better than ever. Lodolo's 2.2% walk rate puts him in the 97th percentile in baseball. We'll give a slight nod to Cincy in Game 1 because of his experience.
Tuesday and Wednesday seem to be relatively even in the starting pitcher department. My numbers rate Nick Martinez and Edward Cabrera similarly and the same goes for Sandy Alcantara and Brady Singer. Honestly, I'm having a tough time knowing how to rate Alcantara since he missed the entire 2024 season because of Tommy John surgery.
The Reds look a lot more patient at the plate this season, and they're putting the ball in play more often. Cincy is also in outstanding current form on offense, as they lead MLB in WRC+ over the last 7 days. They scored a whopping 24 runs against the Orioles on Sunday.
Elly De La Cruz still strikes out a lot, but he's still one of the most exciting players to watch in all of baseball. The switch-hitting shortstop has already hit 5 homers and stolen 7 bases this season. Matt McLain and Jake Fraley have also provided some much-needed pop to the Cincy batting order.
Miami has surprised me on offense so far this season. They aren't nearly as bad as they were in 2024, even though their strikeout rate has been through the roof. The Fish rank 9th in WRC+ against lefties, so they could fare better than some people think against Lodolo on Monday night.
CIN at MIA - 6:40 PM EDT (Mon), 6:40 PM EDT (Tue), 1:10 PM EDT (Wed)
This price implies that the Reds are just a smidge better than the Marlins. I don't agree with that, as many numbers put Cincy as the 16th best team in baseball and Miami as the 28th best team.
Even with the improvements that the Fish have made, I still put them as just slightly better than the White Sox and Rockies. Even though neither team has an edge in the starting pitching department, the Reds should have sizable advantages with their bullpen and their bats.
Cincy ranks 22nd in reliever K minus BB rate, while Miami ranks dead last. Let's lay the small number with the Reds to take at least two of three from the Marlins on the road.