Happy Wednesday, sports betting compadres! Tuesday was a wonderful day for us on the diamond, as our MLB best bets went 3-0, running our record to 30-26 on the young season for a profit of 2.12 units. As my buddy Adam Hutchison would say, "It's a pretty SWEEP feeling!"
After an up-and-down start to the season, it's nice to finally be on the right side of the proverbial ledger. Let's keep firing with 4 more strikeout props for April 16th. Good luck, folks!
ATL at TOR - 1:07 PM EDT
We cashed an Over last night by fading this Braves lineup, and I have no problem signing up for Round 2 today with Chris Bassitt. The 36-year-old veteran righty is a lot like Seth Lugo in that he has 7 pitches that he can throw for a strike at any time.
That being said, Bassitt's career K-rate is much higher than Lugo's, and he's gotten off to a fabulous start this season. The veteran righty has struck out 28.8% of hitters in 2025, which puts him in the 79th percentile.
Atlanta continues to fan at quite a high rate against righties, as they've got the 3rd-highest strikeout percentage in baseball in that metric. Give me Bassitt to get at least 6 Ks for some daytime action.
WSH at PIT - 6:40 PM EDT
Parker hasn't punched out many hitters yet in 2025, but I think that changes tonight against a pitiful Pittsburgh lineup. The Pirates have the 4th highest K-rate against lefties this season, so this 4.5 number looks quite low.
Parker's median K number was 5 last season, so I made my number 5.5 when accounting for Pittsburgh's high strikeout tendencies. Six Pirate hitters strike out more than 27.3% of the time overall. Give me another Over!
AZ at MIA - 6:40 PM EDT
We saw Merrill Kelly cash an easy Over for us last night against the Marlins, and it wouldn't surprise me if Pfaadt does the same on Wednesday evening. The young righty hasn't looked great lately, but he's still one of our favorite pitchers to bet on.
Even though Pfaadt's strikeout numbers have been down a bit to start 2025, I love that his Chase Rate ranks in the 87th percentile. That tells me that he's due for a 7 or 8 strikeout performance in the near future.
Miami has the 2nd highest K-rate in MLB against righties, so look for Pfaadt to utilize his curveball and sinker to rack up plenty of Ks. Hopefully, this one will be easy.
BOS at TB - 7:05 PM EDT
Betting on a contact pitcher like Littel to get 6 Ks seems like a tough proposition. That being said, the veteran righty should have an easy time against a scuffling Red Sox lineup. Boston has 5 hitters who strike out more than 27.2% of the time.
Littel doesn't have an overpowering fastball, but his breaking stuff is seriously nasty. He ranks in the 93rd percentile in Chase Rate, so it could be a long night at the plate for the likes of Devers, Story, and Casas.
A's at CWS - 7:40 PM EDT
I'm trying to figure out why this Under is at plus money, but I can't find a single reason. The A's have been much better on offense to start this season.
They're getting back to Billy Beane's Moneyball philosophy and trying to put the ball in play more often and take more walks. The A's may not have a home ballpark yet, but they do have the 4th-lowest K-rate in baseball against righties.
They shouldn't have too hard of a time making contact against Cannon, who had a median K number of just 4 last season. Cannon's Whiff Rate this season ranks in just the 16th percentile. Give me an Under to close out the card. Let's ride!