Happy Monday, sports betting friends! The weekend wasn't kind us on the diamond, as our MLB best bets went 3-4, running our record to 26-25 on the young season for a deficit of 3.21 units.
We had a couple of tough First 5 inning losses on Friday that really ruined the mojo we had going. All in all, though, last week was profitable. We ended up 11-9 for a profit of +2.67 units. Even though I'm a little displeased at our slow start, things are headed in the right direction.
Speaking of the right direction, I'm constantly evaluating how we can improve our MLB handicapping process. I did a deep dive into each of our plays so far, and I'll share those results below. I'm a firm believer in doing more of what's working and less of what's not.
Our strikeout props have been a strong point, as they're 9-4 so far this season. Sides (full game and first 5s) have been a disappointing 15-20. Totals are 1-1, and series bets are 1-0 after our nice Tigers win on Saturday at plus money.
In light of this info, I'm going to double down on strikeout props and do less sides. We did this last season, and it worked very well. I'll also be throwing in a series bet or two each week to give us some extra action. Anyway, enough rambling, let's get into today's plays.
KC at NYY - 7:05 PM EDT
Lugo isn't a big-time strikeout guy, but he has a decent K-rate of 23.6% against this Yankees roster. He's done exceptionally well against Jazz Chisholm (35.7% K-rate) and Aaron Judge (27.3% K-rate). Lugo is a different animal because he uses 10 different pitches to keep hitters off balance.
As good as this Yanks lineup has been with their mighty torpedo bats, they've struggled to put the ball in play this season against righties. New York has six guys who strike out 25% of the time or more. As a team, the Yankees have the 3rd highest strikeout rate against right-handed pitchers.
Lastly, I love that Lugo typically works deep into games. His median innings pitched last season was 6.1, so all we really need is one strikeout per inning to cash this bad boy at plus money. Let's ride!
CHC at SD - 9:40 PM EDT
I don't typically like playing any kind of strikeout prop with more than -150 juice, but I'm making an exception tonight with Taillon. If you want to play the Under 3.5 at +130 over at Fanatics, I wouldn't blame you. I like having a little extra insurance when playing Unders, but that's just a personal preference.
I cashed several Unders with Taillon last season, and this matchup against San Diego sets up perfectly to do it again. The Padres only strike out 17.8% of the time against righties, which is the 2nd lowest in baseball. Their lineup really only has one true strikeout guy (Gavin Sheets).
Look for Taillon to pitch to contact and get lots of ground ball outs. His K-rate against this Padres roster is just 10.3% through 116 batters faced. Let's lay the price with this juicy Under.