Welcome to the Wednesday MLB slate, MLB enthusiasts. There are plenty of intriguing matchups on the board, and lots of folks are fixated on Philadelphia vs. Atlanta and Minnesota vs. Kansas City.
While those will probably turn out to be fabulous games, I've found some hidden betting value on the Angels vs. Rays tilt at 7:05 PM Eastern Time. Let's take a closer look at the starting pitchers and lineups before giving out our best bet for April 9th.
Oddsmakers are favoring Tampa Bay in this matchup, as the opening line priced the Rays as a -140 favorite in their temporary home ballpark of George Steinbrenner Field. There hasn't been much movement at all in that line as of early Wednesday morning.
Judging by the run total, sportsbooks are expecting a low-scoring affair tonight in Tampa. The number opened at 8 runs, and most shops are juicing the Under. There's one book that's offering up 7.5 runs instead of 8, so check that out if you want to bet on the Over.
A couple of high-velocity hurlers will do battle in this one, so we could see an awful lot of strikeouts. Veteran lefty Yusei Kikuchi will toe the rubber for LA against young phenom Ryan Pepiot of Tampa. Both of these guys put up impressive K-rates in 2024.
The Angels picked up Kikuchi in the off-season after he split last season between the Blue Jays and the Astros. The 33-year-old southpaw hits 94 on the gun with his fastball, and his slider gives left-handed hitters all kinds of headaches.
Pepiot struggles with his command at times, but the young fellow has tons of upside. The 27-year-old utilizes a 5-pitch mix to keep hitters guessing at all times. Pepiot's slider has been especially impressive so far this season.
While the starting pitcher edge is a close race, the Angels have had the better overall lineup to begin 2025. Mike Trout, Logan O'Hoppe, and Kyren Paris all have expected slugging percentages of .633 or higher. Newcomer Jorge Soler is also no slouch in the power-hitting department either, as he clocks in at .502.
Tampa Bay has struggled at the plate quite a bit so far. The Rays rank 26th in WRC+ against lefties and dead last in runs scored in the first 5 innings of games. If those numbers hold true, Pepiot may not get much run support early on in this one.
LAA at TB - 7:05 PM EDT
I posted this in my MLB best bets column a couple of hours ago and still feel pretty strongly about it. Kikuchi dominated this Rays lineup last season, as his K-rate was 33% against the Tampa Bay roster. He should be able to keep their bats relatively quiet through the first 5 innings.
Pepiot has the stuff of a true ace, but he's still learning how to pitch and has had trouble keeping the ball down. I'll gladly take the better offense with the more proven starting pitcher on the hill. This underdog price on the Halos is way too generous. Good luck!