Happy Tuesday, sports betting amigos! Monday was just so-so for us on the diamond, as our MLB best bets went 2-2, running our record to 17-18 on the young season for a deficit of 5.65 units.
Both of our first 5 innings plays lost in blowout fashion, as both the Twins and the Rangers forgot how to hit the ball. Some of these big-league hitters look like they need a reminder that Spring Training is over.
Thankfully, our two strikeout props won to get us back to even. Luis Severino only racked up 3 Ks against a tough Padres lineup. Zach Eflin also stayed well under his K number against the hard-hitting Diamondbacks. Let's put our Tuesday in the win column, folks. Good luck!
NYY at DET - 1:10 PM EDT
Tarik Skubal has gotten off to a slow start after winning the AL Cy Young last season. However, I expect a return to his usual brilliance at home against the mighty Yanks. Detroit proved yesterday that they won't be intimidated by the Boys in Pinstripes.
New York has had some success against Skubal, but the young lefty has still notched a K-rate of 28.3% against this roster. I expect Skubal to use his slider and knuckle curve a bit more to keep the powerful Yankee bats at bay this afternoon.
Don't look now, but Detroit now leads MLB in weighted runs created plus against righties. These Tigers are locked in right now and should have no problem knocking the cover off the ball against Carlos Carrasco. Give me the Motor City Kitties in the First 5.
MIN at KC - 7:40 PM EDT
I made this line 7.5 because of Ragans's insanely good history against this Twins lineup. The powerful lefty has racked up 31 strikeouts in his last 4 starts against Minnesota. Look for him to build on that success today with his 96-mph fastball and a slider that usually breaks off the table.
Minnesota's offense has been kind of sluggish to start the season, and they've looked absolutely clueless against lefties. The Twins are fanning 32.9% of the time against southpaws this year. Take the over with confidence here, folks.
MIL at COL - 8:40 PM EDT
I know I probably shouldn't be playing pitchers props at the hitter's paradise known as Coors Field, but this Colorado lineup swings and misses a ton. Peralta shouldn't have any trouble getting to 7 Ks, as the Rockies have the highest K-rate in baseball against righties.
Peralta didn't pitch at Coors in 2024, but he racked up 10 Ks in this ballpark back in a 2023 start. I also love the fact that Peralta has a lifetime K-rate of 41.5% against this Colorado roster. Give me another Over!
SD at ATH - 10:05 PM EDT
Cease is one of my favorite starters to bet on, and he's already cashed once for us this season. I don't expect the young righty to have any trouble with this A's lineup this evening. Cease has racked up a K-rate of 34% in his career against this roster, so he has that in his back pocket if he gets into trouble.
Jeffrey Springs isn't a bad starter, but he struggled with his command during his last start, and he's never been able to induce many groundballs. That could be a problem against the likes of Manny Machado and Fernando Tatis Jr.
The Padres rank 11th in WRC+ against lefties, and they rank an even more impressive 5th in runs scored through the first 5 innings of games. Let's back San Diego here at a very reasonable price point.