Welcome to Monday morning coffee, where we kickstart our day with some caffeine and MLB winners! Baseball wasn't too kind to us over the weekend, as we went 2-2 on Friday and just 1-2 on Saturday. I think my Atlanta Braves didn't get the memo that Spring Training is over and that it's time to actually hit the ball.
Even though the weekend didn't go as planned, it's wonderful to have our favorite pastime back. Our MLB record sits at 7-5 on the young season for a profit of 2.05 units, so let's keep it rolling with 3 MLB best bets for Monday, March 31st. Good luck!
BOS at BAL - 2:35 PM EDT
Okay, I'm breaking my rule and taking a player prop earlier in the season than I normally would. I usually like to wait a week or two before diving into pitcher props, but this one just looks too good to pass up.
Povich doesn't have overpowering stuff, as his K-rate was only 19.6% in 2024. That being said, he fared very well against the Red Sox last year. In two starts against Boston, Povich racked up 6 Ks and 5 Ks, respectively.
The young lefty's median strikeout number was only 4 a season ago, but I adjusted that up to 5.5 because of Boston's tendency to fan quite often against southpaws. The Red Sox have a K-rate of 27.8% against lefties when we combine last season with this season. Let's take our first Over of the young season.
LAA at STL - 7:45 PM EDT
Betting on veteran righty Miles Mikolas can be scarier than most Stephen King novels, but that's the only way to play this one. As underwhelming as the Cards' starter has been, the Angels' Tyler Anderson has been worse.
Anderson's walk rate of nearly 10% and his low groundball rate make me think that the Cards' bats will do some damage against him early on. Saint Louis has come out of the gate strong on offense, as they rank 3rd in WRC+ through their first 3 games. LAA ranks a pitiful 25th in that metric.
Lastly, if this one comes down to the bullpens, the Cardinals have the edge there as well. St. Louis ranked 19th in K minus BB rate a year ago, while LAA ranked just 29th. Give me the Red Birds at home at this reasonable juice.
CHC at OAK - 10:05 PM EDT
A lot of experts are writing off Ben Brown, but I'm still pretty bullish on this kid. He's only 25 years old, and he showed flashes of brilliance during some of his 8 starts in 2024. The 6'6" flamethrower was roughed up a bit in Japan, but heck, who isn't roughed up against the mighty Dodgers these days.
Brown hits 97 mph on the gun regularly, and his devastating knuckle curve helped him rate in the 88th percentile in Whiff Percentage in 2024. He should be able to feast against this A's lineup that struggles to put the ball in play.
Dansby Swanson and Kyle Tucker are off to nice starts at the plate for the Cubs, and I could see them giving Oakland starter Joey Estes all kinds of problems. I'll take the North Siders to win this one going away. Go Cubs Go!