The New York Yankees face off against the Los Angeles Dodgers in Game 1 of the 2024 World Series at Dodger Stadium. With two powerhouse clubs and elite pitchers on the mound, this is going to be one of the hottest WS matchups we’ve ever seen.
The Yankees will rely on their ace Gerrit Cole, who commands a smoking-hot 3.31 ERA. The Dodgers, on the other hand, counter with Jack Flaherty, who has struggled with a 7.04 ERA in the postseason.
Run Line: Yankees +1.5 (-192), Dodgers -1.5 (+160)
Moneyline: Yankees +105, Dodgers -125
Total: Over/Under 8.5 runs (-115/-105)
The Dodgers are favored slightly on the moneyline. Given their 63.8% win rate as favorites this season, it's understandable why the bookmakers have them at -125 and over 80% of the bets so far are on the Dodgers moneyline.
The Yankees, however, are a dangerous underdog. They have a remarkable 74.1% win rate as underdogs this season, and they’ve won 7 out of 8 games when given odds worse than +110.
So, what does this mean for the matchup? We don’t think it’s as clear-cut as you’d like, but we know who will win.
Gerrit Cole, the Yankees' ace, is no stranger to pressure.
He's been on fire throughout the postseason, and while he missed the first half of the regular season, he’s now fully back to his old ways.
Cole’s ability to pitch deep into games will be critical here. This is especially true against the Dodgers' potent lineup. His strikeout line is set at O/U 4.5 strikeouts, with the over at -140. Given that the Dodgers’ tend to swing and miss, taking the over on Cole’s strikeouts seems like a safe bet to us. Either they get hit or they go down in flames.
On the other side, Jack Flaherty has been a bit shaky, with a 7.04 ERA in the playoffs.
His strikeout line is also at O/U 4.5, but the over is at -155, which we think reflects how volatile his performances have been. If Flaherty struggles early, expect the Dodgers bullpen to take over by the middle innings.
The Yankees’ offense, led by Aaron Judge and Juan Soto, has been nothing less than explosive, but surprisingly, it’s Giancarlo Stanton who has been their hottest hitter in October.
With Soto and Judge both posting strong seasons, the Yankees lineup is a massive threat to the Blue Crew.
Meanwhile, the Dodgers offense, led by Freddie Freeman and Mookie Betts, remains one of the best in baseball. The Dodgers’ depth had allowed them to get through inconsistent starting pitching, with their relievers stepping up when they needed them the most.
However, we’re seeing a glaring mismatch in this game between the starting pitchers.
Cole has been far more consistent, and given Flaherty’s struggles over the last few weeks, the Yankees could strike early.
The total line at 8.5 is a bit tricky, but with both offenses being strong and Flaherty’s inconsistency, we’re taking the over on this one.
The Dodgers have home-field advantage and a strong bullpen, but Jack Flaherty's postseason struggles give the Yankees the upper hand in this pitching duel.
With Gerrit Cole on the mound and the Yankees’ offense firing on all cylinders, we like New York in this spot. This might just be your chance to get the odds you want because the bookmakers are swinging and missing on Game 1 of the World Series.
BettorInsider Best Bet: Yankees Moneyline (+105).
Cole’s reliability and the Yankees’ powerful offense make them the safer choice here, especially with Flaherty’s inconsistency on the mound for the Dodgers.
We’re also leaning toward the over 8.5 runs (-115), given the big potential for early offense against Flaherty.