Tuesday evening wasn't kind to the home team, as we ended up going 2-3 with our MLB player props. The two wins on George Kirby and Tyler Glasnow were solid, but the three losses were kind of strange to watch.
Jesus Luzardo was cruising through the Rays lineup at first, but then he got lit up for 9 earned runs. Triston McKenzie got his breaking pitches working better than he has in years to bust our Under prop on him against KC.
Lastly, the Cubs forgot how to play defense, which was a big reason why our "to get the win" prop on Shota Imanaga didn't cash. Anyway, let's bounce back strong with these 5 plays.
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Nothing like a good ole sweaty Under to get the juices flowing on a Wednesdsay afternoon. Mikolas has gone over this total in 3 straight starts, but I think the Astros could knock him out of this one early. Houston has an expected batting average of .305 against Mikolas in 52 plate appearances.
Mikolas has an above-average fastball but his breaking pitches aren't very good at all. He tends to hang his slider and pitch too far up in the zone with his sinker. Those two bad habits have led to a hard-hit rate that's in the 16th percentile.
I don't know if y'all have realized this, but I love playing on this Houston team to NOT strike out very often. The 'Stros have one of the lowest K-rates in MLB, regardless of who is on the mound. Give me the Under with the usual cup of afternoon java.
Every Wednesday, BetMGM awards all of its customers with a 50% Odds Boost token that can be used on any MLB game, as long as the odds are -300 or greater. Sweet promos like that are why BetMGM is known as the King of Sportsbooks!
I used this promo to take Ashcraft's Over from +100 +150, which is one heck of a deal! The maximum wager allowed with this promo is $20, so keep that in mind when using it.
Why do we like the Over on Ashcraft today? Well, it's pretty darn simple! The Rockies strike out a ton against righties, as they have 5 players with strikeout rates above 26%.
Ashcraft is more of a ground ball guy, but I still think he can rack up plenty of Ks against this Colorado lineup. Yes, I do hate that this game is at Coors, but Ashcraft's cutter and slider shouldn't be affected too much by the thin air. Let's play the Over!
This one falls outside of my juice rules, but I don't mind laying a little bit extra from time to time. If you want the plus money at 5.5, I'm okay with that route too. Garrett only has 4 starts this season because of injuries, but he's looked great of late.
The 26-year-old lefty has gone over this total in 3 of those 4 starts in 2024. That's even more impressive when you consider that 3 of the 4 teams that Garrett has faced were low K-rate squads (NYM, AZ, SD).
Garrett has a very good sinker, and I expect it to serve him well against a Tampa Bay team that strikes out quite often against southpaws. Let's get it!
I'm a sucker for these plus money Unders, but they cash more often than some folks realize. Maeda has had a rough start to 2024 and I look for that to continue tonight against Texas.
The Rangers offense has been kind of disappointing, but they put the ball in play well against righties. Five of Texas's everyday players have K-rates below 20%, which is pretty impressive for a free-swinging AL West team.
Maeda doesn't throw very hard and his breaking stuff doesn't have the same bite that it did last year with Minnesota. The veteran righty only struck out two against Texas back on April 18th and a similar outing wouldn't surprise me tonight. Take the Under!
George Kirby cashed an Over for us against Oakland last night and Mr. Gilbert shouldn't have any trouble doing the same on Wednesday. I'm a big fan of Gilbert, mainly because he throws 96 mph with an insane amount of extension.
The 6'6" righty also has an 88 mph slider that breaks a ton when he's got it working well. He'll also mix in a nice cutter from time to time just to keep hitters guessing.
To put in bluntly, Gilbert should cruise through this subpar A's lineup. He's gone over this total 5 times already this season, and 4 of those outings were against low K teams like AZ, TOR, MIL, and KC.