Friday was another sweet result for the home team, as our MLB strikeout props ended up going 4-1. That put a bow on May, which saw our readers profit +22.6 units (21.1% ROI). It's always nice when the hard work is rewarded with a handsome profit.
Even with the recent hot streak, I advise everyone to keep betting their same unit size. It may sound boring, but it's the best way to stay in the game over the long haul and keep stacking profits. MLB betting is streaky, so you want to stay conservative all season long.
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Y'all know that I'm an Under bettor at heart, and I just can't resist this plus money price on a low-K guy like Kyle Gibson. The veteran righty has never had unworldy strikeout stuff, so he relies on getting weak ground balls as his game plan.
The 36-year-old has a K-rate of just 19.4%, which only puts him in the 30th percentile of MLB. Gibson's chase rate is also pretty low (32nd percentile), mainly because he doesn't have a dynamic put-away pitch.
Gibson's change-up is actually pretty good, but I think this Houston lineup should feast on his below-average fastball and a sweeper that is sometimes left up in the zone. We've talked all year about how this Astros lineup has one of the lowest K-rates in the league against righties.
Back to Gibson, he has an ERA of 3.60 this season but his expected ERA is 5.24! That means that regression is coming soon to a ballpark near you. Let's ride the Under at this incredible price!
I'm personally using this play as part of the BetMGM promotion. Each Monday, BetMGM gives all of its customers a Bet Insurance Token of up to $20 to use on MLB games. Here's a brief rundown on how it works.
Simply opt-in to the promo on their website or app and find the game or player you want to bet on. Make sure that you click the ADD PROMO button to use the token. If your wager loses, BetMGM will give you a Bonus Bet to cover the loss. How sweet is that?.
Anyway, back to why we like this play. Feltner isn't a prolific strikeout guy and no, Coors Field isn't ideal for pitchers. That being said, this Cincy lineup has struck out a ton this year against righties.
Will Benson and Elly De La Cruz both seem to strike out at least twice per game on a regular basis. They're fun to watch, but they'll be swinging for the fences in the thin air of Colorado. Feltner doesn't walk a lot of hitters and his barrel rate is pretty good, so look for him to work 6 innings and get at least 5 Ks.
Anderson is another tough guy to figure out. His stuff isn't very good, but he finds creative ways to pitch deep into ball games. The 34-year-old lefty has an impressive ERA of just 2.47 this year, but (like Kyle Gibson) he's a regression candidate.
Anderson has an expected ERA of 4.62, so he's been getting quite a bit lucky so far in 2024. The former Oregon Duck only throws his fastball 89 mph, which is why his K-rate is only 17.1% this season.
The Padres struggle to hit lefties, but they never strike out frequently against them. Look for San Diego to keep Anderson under this number tonight in Los Angeles. Again, this plus money price is nice!